What Can We Expect for the Opening Time Trial?

SPEED!  The stage is only 13.8 Km long.  It involves a pancake-flat ride through the streets of Utrecht, Holland.  The beginning elevation is only 3 meters above sea level; and the finish is at 5 meters.  That’s flat. 

Consider that the cycling one-hour speed record was broken three times this year at 52.491 Km by Rohan Dennis, at 52.937 Km by Alex Dowsett, and then at 54.937 Km by Bradley Wiggins.  Those riders maintained that 50+ Km/hour pace for a full hour.  Could they have averaged 60 Km/hour for a mere quarter-hour?  Those records were set in the controlled environment of indoor tracks, with banked corners and ideal riding surfaces.  Stage One of the Tour will have about as close to similar perfect conditions as a road race can have.  The course is perfectly flat.  There will only be about twenty 90-degree corners, but there will also be longer straight-aways.  Negative factors could be possible wind and the distraction of spectators along the route.  The question remains whether anyone can push the 60 Km/hour pace for that intense-but-short zip around the city? 

In the 2012 Tour, the opening Prologue in Liège was only 6.4 Km.  Fabian Cancellara won that race in 7 minutes and 13 seconds, for an average speed of 53.21 Km/hour.  In order to finish this year’s opening stage in 15 minutes or less, the winner will need to average better than 55 Km/hour.  A winning time of 13 minutes 48 seconds or less will break the 60 Km/hour barrier.

So, who might be able to do that?  The top two favorites are Fabian Cancellara (Trek) and Tony Martin (Etixx-Quidkstep).  They are perennial winners of their own countries’ time trial championships (Switzerland and Germany respectively), as well as most of the prestigious time trials in the biggest races on the pro circuit.  But will Cancellara’s age or his injury earlier in the season slow him down?  Two others who have demonstrated their speed this year are Alex Dowsett (Movistar) and Rohan Dennis (BMC), recent one-hour world record holders.  If you want a couple of “dark horses,” cheer for Dutch rider Tom Dumoulin (Giant-Alpecin) – winner of three ITTs already this year; and Polish rider Michal Kwiatkowski (Etixx-Quickstep) – Polish time trial champion and frequent winner of ITTs. 

None of these riders will challenge for the final Yellow Jersey at the end of the three-week Tour de France; but each of them would dearly love to win Stage One, and thus the honor of wearing the coveted Yellow Jersey for the first few days of the Tour.   So, pick your favorite, and let the race begin.

You know, they use very special bikes in time trials.  But here are a couple of real antiques.  I spotted these in the attic of the Château at Nyon, Switzerland.  No speed records will be set riding these babies.

Here's another doozie!  We found this in the village of Oingt.  We had to get in line to take the picture - a wedding photographer was there first, using it as a prop for the bride in her wedding dress.

And here is my "vélo d'appartement" - apartment bike - from our recent LDS mission in Lyon France.  I would ride it on our patio early in the mornings, with encouragement from the passersby in the street one flight below.  Some were revelers returning home from a night on the town; others were working stiffs heading off for an early start to their working day.  I could imagine I was riding the Tour de France - at least I was in France.