Tour de France Commentary: Stage 1 – Record Speed As Predicted

I guess 60 Km/hour was a bit unrealistic, but 55 Km/hour proved to be a worthy goal. Australia’s Rohan Dennis (BMC) covered the 13.8 Km course in under 15 minutes (14:56) to set a new Tour de France speed record of 55.446 Km/hour. Chris Boardman had set the previous record 21 years ago on a very short prologue of only 7.2 Km. So, Dennis will wear the Yellow Jersey starting tomorrow, and until someone takes it from him. If the early stages all end in bunch sprints, he could keep the prize jersey for more than a week.

Of the six riders I predicted to dominate this time trial, four claimed the first four positions, separated by 8 seconds or less: Rohan Dennis (BMC) first, Tony Martin (Etixx-Quickstep) at -05”, Fabian Cancellara at -06”, and Tom Dumoulin at -08”. Alex Dowsett (Movistar) was respectable in 13^th place at -36”, but Mikal Kwiatkowski disappointed me in 64^th place at -1:06.

I said earlier that the time trial would not have a significant bearing on the final GC (Yellow Jersey) standings. I still believe that prediction. Of the six riders I featured as likely challengers for that top prize, they all finished within 24 seconds of each other. They crossed the line in approximately reverse order from that predicted by the odds-makers, led by Bauke Mollema (Trek) (worst odds at 200:1), followed by Tejay Van Garderen (BMC), Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Chris Froome (Sky), Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar). Quintana’s teammate Alejandro Valverde and Contador’s teammate Peter Sagan are also within that 24-second group, as are two favorites of the French fans, Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) and Jérôme Péreau (AG2R Le Mondial). But with 20 more stages to race, including 7 high-mountain stages, those 24 seconds will be shuffled and re-shuffled into oblivion by the end of the Tour.

The only stages before the mountains where a GC shake-up might occur could be Stages 3 and 8 (hill-top finishes) or Stage 4 (featuring the cobble stone lanes from the Paris-Roubaix spring “classic” race). Of course, accidents are a risk in every stage, and can derail the favorites without warning – as they did early in the 2014 Tour.

Admission of Blunders:

In my late post of yesterday I reported that André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) would miss the TDF this year because of an injury. Imagine my surprise this morning to see him riding in the time trial! I went back to my research notes, and discovered that I had mistakenly lumped him in with his teammate Jurgen Van den Broeck. So, if you are keeping score, you can add Greipel back in as a top prospect in the sprint finishes.

I also reported that Lars Boom was scratched from the Tour at the last minute because of a low cortisol reading. The low reading is true (attributed to permitted use of asthma medication). Only the voluntary compliance organization MPCC (Movement for Credible Cycling) calls for the rider to not race. The governing body for the Tour, UCI considers him still eligible, and the team’s medical advisors deem him perfectly healthy. Still, in order to satisfy MPCC, Astana was willing to replace him with a designated alternate. But UCI would not allow the substitution, because the test results came out after the rosters were finalized. Therefore, Astana chose to defy the MPCC. That is why Lars Boom did ride in today’s Stage One, and Astana has its full complement of nine riders. That improves Nibali’s chances of ultimately defending his Yellow Jersey, or at least eliminates a serious set-back.

For lack of photos of the actual riders, here are some more photos of French clocks: