Stages 17 - 19: Froome Solidifies Hold on Yellow Jersey

Chris Froome (Sky) won the time trial for Stage 17, putting time into all of his rivals.  The GC top 10 saw a little juggling, with one departure and one new addition.  Jean-Christophe Péraud (ALM) did not start, and was replaced in the top 10 by Michal Kwiatkowski (OPQ).  Bauke Mollema (Belkin) fell the most (from 2nd to 4th), due in part to his near crash when he misjudged a turn and ran into a barrier.  Nothing changed in the standings for the Green Jersey.  Nairo Quintana (Movistar) tightened his grip on the white jersey, leading Kwiatkowski and Andrew Talansky (Garmin) by 4'12" and 8'15" respectively.  Of the top four in the Polka-dot Jersey battle, only Froome and Quintana added any points, increasing their margins for 1st and 2nd place.

Stage 18 showcased the famous Alpe d’Huez by climbing it twice!  Christophe Riblon (ALM) won the stage when Tejay van Gardern ran out of steam in the final 3 Km.  One minute Riblon is telling himself he will have to be content with second place, the next his team car is telling him in his ear-radio that Tejay is bonking.  So, Riblon finds inspiration and a new burst of energy in this report, catching and passing Tejay, and winning the stage by almost a full minute.  First stage win by a Frenchman in this year’s Tour!

Meanwhile, three minutes further back Froome is having his own energy crisis while being attacked by Quintana.  So, he gets an energy bar from teammate Richie Porte, eats it to restore his power, and salvages a finish only 1 minute slower than Quintana and 1 minute faster than Alberto Contador (Saxo).  Problem is, such feeding is prohibited so close to the finish line (for safety reasons).  But the penalty is only 20 seconds.  For Froome, it was an easy decision: grab the food for a 20-second penalty instead of collapsing on the final climb and losing possibly several minutes.  (There was also a financial penalty of 1,400 Swiss Francs, but again that was a cheap price for the benefit.)  Too bad Tejay didn’t grab an energy bar just when Riblon saw him falter!  Could he have held on for the stage win with such a last-minute supply of power?

Of course we know that performance-enhancing substances are forbidden and evil.  But is eating cheating?  An energy bar at the critical time in a steep climb like Alpe d’Huez would seem to be a performance-enhancing substance.  But if the only penalty is a paltry 20 seconds, why don’t all the riders ignore the no-feeding rule?  Why have the rule if the penalty is so small?  Froome’s excuse was that the team car had mechanical problems which prevented it from giving the Sky riders their food within the feed zone, so he felt justified taking the food in the prohibited zone.   Was Froome acting ethically?  Showing good sportsmanship?  Does anyone care?

Stage 19 featured two massive climbs through the Alps, with several smaller ones for good measure.  Rui Costa (Movistar) won again - second time this week!  Close behind were Andreas Kloden and Jan Bakelants (both RadioShack).  The Yellow Jersey’s peleton cruised in at 8'40" with Froome and his major challengers.  Cadel Evans (BMC) threw in the towel as he staggered home at 35'24"!

No change in the Green Jersey.  Quintana increased his cushion for the White Jersey over 2nd place Kwiatkowski.  Talansky did not lose time to Quintana today, but still trails by almost 11 minutes.

Pierre Rolland picked up 52 climbing points on the day, and now trails Froome for the Polka-dot Jersey by a single point - 103 to 104.  Mikel Nieve (Euskaltel) gained 35 points and now ranks 3rd, leading Quintana 98 to 97.  Riblon, the winner of Stage 18 is in 5th at 93 total points.  There are enough points available tomorrow for any one of these five riders to win the Polka-dot Jersey.  The battle for the team prize is still open with RadioShack trailing Saxo by less than 4 minutes.  So, even though the Yellow Jersey, Green Jersey and White Jersey contests may not animate the race tomorrow, we should see aggressive riding by those two teams, and by the climbing contenders.  We will likely also see a determined breakaway by riders anxious for one last shot at a stage victory.  Sunday’s final stage to Paris will be largely ceremonial, except that the top 5 or 6 sprinters and their lead-out trains will try to capture the last stage victory in a spirited bunch sprint.

 Bird's-eye view of Bourg d'Oisans, starting village for Stage 19, and included in the route for Stage 18.

Street-level view of Bourg d'Oisans.  The bike shop where we rented our bikes is at the top of this street.

 Within a few minutes of climbing, Ashley Jensen had risen from the streets of Bourg d'Oisans to this overlook of the village.  Not even 25% of the way to the top yet!

 A little higher up, you can look down on some of the famous switchbacks (17 total) in the storied Alpe d'Huez climb.  Stage 18 of this year's race climbed these roads twice!

This is the place called "Dutch corner," because of all the Dutch fans who annually crowd the road here to act crazy and cheer on the riders as they struggle up the steep incline.  It looks so peaceful here in late May.  But in July, it is a madhouse!

As Nan Kennard rounds one of the last switchbacks, the snow-covered Alps provide the background.  Only 2 or 3 Km to go, Nan!  You can do it!

Stage Sixteen: Rui Costa Justifies My Pre-Race Hype!

Back in June, while analyzing the Tour de Suisse, I singled out Rui Costa (Movistar) as a likely high achiever in the Tour de France.  Early in the race he was within 3 minutes of Chris Froome (Sky) and sitting in GC 11th place, riding support for team leader Alejandro Valverde who was in GC 2nd place.  Then the wheels came off - literally.  The puncture by Valverde in Stage 13 forced Costa to drop back in what proved to be a futile effort to rescue Valverde, and both Valverde and Costa fell out of contention for the Yellow Jersey.  Movistar has scrambled back into the headlines with Nairo Quintana’s brilliant 2nd place showing on Mt. Ventoux, his capture of the White Jersey, and his jump to GC 6th place.  Now today, in the very next stage, Rui Costa has come roaring back!  He led the large escape group that deprived the top sprinters of any intermediate sprint points, and then attacked the escapees to capture the stage victory in the mountain town of Gap, jumping from GC 33rd place to 20th, and cutting his deficit to Froome by 11 minutes.  As frosting on the cake, he also won the award for “most combative.”

Meanwhile, Froome stayed safe in the trailing peleton, riding behind his Sky teammate Richie Porte, who fought off repeated attacks by the Saxo pair of Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger.  The Contador attacks dropped most of the other GC hopefuls, including Cadel Evans (BMC) and Andrew Talansky (Garmin).  However, Bauke Mollema (Belkin) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar) stayed in the Yellow Jersey’s elite 8-man peleton, retaining their top GC places.  In fact, Quintana moved up from 6th to 5th, at the expense of Laurens Ten Dam (Belkin).

With 7.5 Km to go, Contador crashed while trying to lose Froome on a high-speed descent.  Froome did not crash, but rode his bike off the road to avoid hitting Contador.  Mollema and Quintana, in a show of sportsmanship, slowed their pace to allow Contador and Froome to rejoin their little peleton and finish the race all with the same time.

If you can't bike the valleys and mountains of France, then maybe you can see them in a car, like this vintage deux chevaux we spotted while climbing Mt. Ventoux in 2011.

Stage Fifteen: The Froomeyous Bandit Snatches Prize on Mt. Ventoux

I just couldn’t help myself with that headline!  (Apologies to Lewis Carrol.)

One huge story and one Nail-in-the Coffin story in today’s stage.

Huge Story: Chris Froome (Sky) snatches back all the time, and more, which he lost in the stage to Lyon; and adds his name to the short list of select riders who have conquered the Giant of Provence in the Tour de France.  Four more mountain stages remain, plus a time trial with two category 2 climbs, but the Yellow Jersey looks to be permanently tattooed on Froomey’s shoulders.  Bauke Mollema (Belkin) and Alberto Contador (Saxo) still claim the other two GC podium spots, but eight other riders are within striking distance, including one each of their teammates: Roman Kreuziger (Saxo) and Laurens Ten Dam (Belkin).  They had better not overlook Nairo Quintana (Movistar) who came closest to beating Froome for the stage win today.

The “Nail-in-the-Coffin” was pounded home by Peter Sagan (Cannondale) for the Green Jersey.  He alone of the Big Three sprinters jumped into today’s breakaway, where he scored the 20 points maximum at the intermediate sprint, while André Greipel (Lotto) and Mark Cavendish (Omega) collected only minor points, thus neutralizing the gains Cavendish made two days ago.  With only the final flat stage to Paris remaining as a “sprint stage,” no realistic scenario exists for Cavendish or Greipel to catch the wheely-popping Sagan.

Two big prize jerseys remain undecided.  The White Jersey for young riders, and the Polka-dot Jersey for climbers.  Froome currently leads the climbers, with Quintana, Mikel Nieve (Euskaltel) and Pierre Rolland (Europcar) the closest challengers.  With big points available  for 22 climbs over the next five stages, the Polka-dot Jersey could go to someone not currently on the radar screen.  But Froome, riding near the front to protect his Yellow Jersey, could double his current total.  Quintana riding close to Froome to protect his White Jersey and to reach the GC podium will likely also double his total.  Translation: Nieve, Rolland or anyone else coveting the Polka-dot Jersey will need to ride as if they were defending (or at least challenging) the Yellow Jersey.  You might say it’s going to be an uphill battle.

Quintana has a solid grip on the White Jersey, but Mikal Kwiatkowski (Omega) could take that away with another strong time trial.  American Andrew Talanski (Garmin) still holds 3rd place for this prize, but today he failed to capitalize on his gains of yesterday, falling back to a deficit of 6'45".  His last time trial was faster than Quintana’s, but not 6 minutes faster; and he was slower than Kwiatkowski.  If Talanski wants the White Jersey, he will need to attack in the mountains, and probably more than once.

 As the road leaves Bédoin, it enters the Mt. Ventoux forest, climbing constantly, but at least with some shade . . .

 As the forest thins out, you can see the valley below, and you realize how high you have already climbed . . .

 On the steep switch-backs, you will be out of the saddle, just to keep moving forward . . .

 But for Nan Kennard, Olympic-class athlete, it seems to be just a cheerful morning warm-up ride!

 Enjoy the shade while it lasts . . .



Because you will soon be above the tree-line, looking down on Bédoin and the valley you left 18 Km ago.

Finally, you round a corner, and you see the summit!  All doubt vanishes, and you KNOW you can conquer the Giant of Provence, the legendary windy mountain, le Mont Ventoux!  (Credits: Riders: Ashley and Matt Jensen, Nan and Aaron Kennard; Event: Papa Duck's Tour de France, May 2011.)

Stage Fourteen: Big Boys All Neutralized by Successful Breakaway. Two Americans Shine.

On the last flat stage before Paris, a large early breakaway group finished the race 7 minutes ahead of the main peleton, depriving the Big Three sprinters of any points.  That’s good for Peter Sagan (Cannondale) in his quest for the Green Jersey, and bad for Mark Cavendish (Omega) and André Greipel (Lotto).  Cavendish took consolation in the fact that his teammate Matteo Trentin rode in the escape group and won the stage for Omega.

All of the top 5 Yellow Jersey contenders, and most of the top 20, finished in the main peleton at 7 minutes behind the escapees, so no substantial change in the GC standings.  However, two Americans managed to join the break and earned some much needed redemption in the GC rankings.  Tejay van Garderen (BMC) moved up from 43rd place to 34th, though he still trails the leader Chris Froome (Sky) by 32'26".  Tejay will remember at least this one bright day from his 2013 Tour.  Andrew Talansky (Garmin) fared even better than TVG.  He finished in 3rd place for the stage, in the thick of a spirited sprint for the victory.  He moved up the GC standings from 17th to 12th place at a deficit of only 5'54".  Barring a miracle, he will not overtake Froome for the Yellow Jersey.  But he could realistically gain the 1'10" needed to overhaul Mikal Kwiatkowski (Omega) for the White Jersey.  He will need to also beat Nairo Quintana (Movistar) who leads him by 36".  Look for Quintana to be super aggressive in the mountains, because he also has a chance to win the Polka-dot Jersey in the climbing classification.  Talansky is admittedly a dark horse for the White Jersey, but the fight between him and these other two youngsters for that prize will animate the remaining stages.

Not only will those three put on a show all next week for the White and Polka-dot Jerseys, but Bauke Mollema (Belkin) and Alberto Contador (Saxo) should spark their own fireworks in the mountains in their bid to capture the Yellow Jersey from Froome.

The excitement begins tomorrow with a summit finish atop Mt. Ventoux, the monster mountain of Provence!

Early in today's stage, the race curled around the town of Roanne.  In this picture two would-be druids are harvesting mistletoe near Roanne for their magic potions.  (Circa 1967.)

Today's Stage 12 ended in Lyon, a sprawling city of many faces.  I found this gigantic statue of Mary and the Christ-child.on the road east of Lyon heading towards Geneva.  (Notice how small the man at the base is.)  (Circa 1967.)

Stage 15 tomorrow travels south into Provence, where it culminates at the summit of majestic Mt. Ventoux. After 221 Km of relatively flat racing, the climbing begins in earnest as the road rises out of the town of Bédoin -- 1600 meters elevation gain in just 21 Km!  Here we see Ashley Jensen climbing out of Bédoin in a daring breakaway!  (Papa Duck's Tour de France 2011.)

 While the peleton of Matt Jensen, Aaron Kennard and Nan Kennard are scrambling to reel her in from her current 5'00" advantage.  (2011.)  Tomorrow, the 2013 Tour will follow this very road as they challenge (or are challenged by) the legendary "Windy Mountain."

Stage Thirteen: Cavendish & Contador Drop Bomb on Yellow Jersey

On a day when the GC contenders could theoretically coast along safely behind the sprinters, Mark Cavendish’s Omega team tossed away the script.  About mid-way in the race, having already caught the initial escape group, they pounced on a strong cross-wind and split the peleton.

Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) - GC 2nd place - was the first notable victim.  He picked just that moment to suffer a puncture.  Instead of swapping bikes with a teammate and immediately bridging the gap, he opted to switch wheels, which took longer.  By the time he began riding again, he was too far behind to catch up, even when all his teammates dropped back to help.

Then, with about 40 Km to go, Alberto Contador’s Saxo team copied the Omega move, with a burst of speed just as the course turned sideways to the wind.  Again, this split the peleton, leaving Yellow Jersey Chris Froome (Sky) in the dust.  The Saxo, Omega, Belkin and Cannondale teams pushed the pace, and opened a gap of more than a minute by the end of the race.

Instead of a bunch sprint with all the sprinter favorites, we had a mini-sprint mainly between Cavendish and Peter Sagan (Cannondale).  Sagan (whether by mistake or simple bad luck) had Cavendish in his slipstream (instead of vice versa), allowing Big Mark to slingshot into an unbeatable surge to the finish line.  Second stage win of this year’s Tour for the Omega superstar, and 25th lifetime Tour victory.  Cavendish outscored Sagan 62 to 50 for the day, but still trails Sagan for the Green Jersey by 84 points.  With only two more flat stages to go, Sagan’s Green Jersey is in the bank!

The shake-up of the GC standings captured the most headlines.  Valverde dropped out of sight! Bauke Mollema (Belkin) and Contador each reduced their gap to Froome, and moved up to 2nd and 3rd place overall, with much more manageable deficits of 2'28" and 2'45" respectively.  They each have a teammate close behind and within 3'00" of Froome.  Meanwhile, Froome’s team seems to be disappearing.  Two Sky riders are out altogether, and none of the other six could even keep up with Froome in today’s flat stage.  How are they going to help him in the five upcoming mountain stages?  Could Team Sky ever admit to manager’s remorse for leaving its Columbian mountain goats Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Luis Henao home?  If not today, how about when the REAL attacks explode in the mountains?

Today's stage crossed from the Loire River drainage into the Allier River basin, passing close to Châteauroux near mid-stage.  Just outside of Châteauroux lies this charming bed & breakfast, known as the Château Bois-Robert.  The perfect mid-way resting place in a two-day drive from the Pyrénées to Paris.

Stage Twelve: Kittel Edges Cavendish at the Line

As the Tour de France raced through the heart of France’s beautiful “châteaux country,” the stage unfolded strictly according to plan for a classical group sprint.  A small breakaway group formed, which lasted most of the day, and collected the big points for the intermediate sprint.  The top sprinters fought for the middle points, with Mark Cavendish (Omega) winning this mid-way sprint for 6th place and 10 points, followed by 7th André Greipel 9 points, and 8th Peter Sagan (Cannondale) 8 points.  Of the breakaway group, Juan Antonio Flecha (Vancansoleil) survived the longest, and won the most combative award, as the peleton swept him up with 6 Km to go.

As the sprinters’ teams lined up their lead-out trains, and pushed the pace above 50 Km/hour, Svein Tuft (Orica) crashed at about 5 Km to go.  Then, just inside of 3 Km, about 20 more riders crashed, including Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky), who suffered a broken collar bone.  He finished the race, but will not be able to continue.  Greipel and others were either in the crash or held up by it.

Cavendish had a good lead-out from his team, and was about to win the stage, when Marcel Kittel (Argos) used Cavendish’s slipstream to sling-shot ahead by about the width of a wheel at the very last second.  Third stage win for Kittel (45 points).  Cavendish picked up 35 points, but Peter Sagan scored 30 points in 3rd place.  On the day, Cavendish outscored Sagan by only 7 points and moved into 2nd place for the Green Jersey, while Greipel dropped 29 points to Sagan and fell to 3rd place.  But the gap between 1st and 2nd actually grew in favor of Sagan, from 73 points yesterday to 96 points today.  Kittel, in 4th place, gained 7 points net, but still trails Sagan by 130.  Cavendish, Greipel and Kittel are running out of sprint stages in which to catch Sagan.

No change in the GC standings.  But Chris Froome will miss the services of Boasson Hagan in the climbing stages which begin on Sunday.

As today's race neared it conclusion at Tours, it passed through the middle of the small town of Langeais, which boasts this old château, with the cool drawbridge entry.  Also, back in 2006, we experienced our first Internet café about 200 yards down the street from the château.  Good times!

Leaving Langeais, the peleton raced headlong towards Tours across this bridge spanning the Loire River.  Too bad they didn't have time to stop and take in all the sights of this region . . .

  . . . such as the Château Ussé, 10 Km west of the Langeais Bridge, reputed to be the inspiration for the story of "Sleeping Beauty."

Or, within 6 Km south of the Langeais Bridge, this beautiful Château Azay-le-Rideau.



The road to Tours took the race directly in front of the Château at Villandry, but I'm sure the riders didn't notice.  What a shame!  This was one of our favorites of the entire region.  The vegetable garden shown here is a work of art, and is only one of about a dozen different gardens surrounding this gorgeous château.  If you bike the roads of the Tour de France, be sure to leave time to stop and see the sights.

Stage Eleven: Tony Martin Wins Time Trial; Froome Adds Insurance

German cyclist Tony Martin (Omega) rode the fastest time trial today at Mont St. Michel, and Chris Froome (Sky) took second, adding 2 minutes or more to all of his closest challengers.  Six riders moved up in rank among the GC top 20, including Alberto Contador (Saxo) and Cadel Evans (BMC), but they all lost at least 2 minutes to Froome.  Michal Kwiatkowski (Omega) moved up the most (from 13th to 7th), and regained the White Jersey, but even he lost 1'20" to Froome.

So is the Yellow Jersey already decided?  Not quite, but almost.  With a 3-1/2 minute lead over Alejandro Valverde and Bauke Mollema, only a melt-down my Froome and/or the Sky team will open the door for someone else to win the coveted jersey.  Possible meltdowns would include illness, accidents, or failure of the team to protect Froome or to chase down aggressive attackers.  When the race returns to the mountains on Sunday, the hopefuls will have several stages to pull off the miracle, but I do not expect them to be successful.  Contador (currently in 4th) will be disappointed not to win 1st place, but Valverde and Mollema will be thrilled if they can retain their 2nd and 3rd place rankings.  For them and their teams (Movistar and Belkin), the Tour has already exceeded their dreams.

Between now and Sunday, the sprinters will have 3 more chances to wrest the Green Jersey from Peter Sagan (Cannondale), but if all they do is match points with him, it will not happen.

How would you like to ride the Tour de France on one of these bikes?  (Found in the attic of the Nyon Château/Museum in Switzerland.)

Or, what if the time trials were measured by the clock in the local church's clock tower?  (This clock tower is in Yvoire, France - across Lac Leman from Nyon, Switzerland.)

Or, how about using this clock to time the race?  (On the wall of the Château at Azay le Rideau, in the Loire Valley of France -- where the Tour will pass beginning tomorrow..)

Stage Ten: Bunch Sprint in St. Malo

As expected, today’s stage ended in a contest of the big sprinters.  The early breakaway group won the high points in the intermediate sprint, while the Big Three essentially tied for the middle points: 6th place André Greipel (Lotto) 10 points, 7th Peter Sagan (Cannondale) 9 points, 8th Mark Cavendish (Omega) 8 points.  At the finish, Marcel Kittel (Argos) swept out of Greipel’s slip stream to take the stage win from his compatriot, scoring the maximum prize of 45 points.  Greipel in 2nd scored 35 points, with 3rd Cavendish 30 points, and 4th Sagan 26 points.  That leaves Sagan still in the Green Jersey, leading Greipel by 83, and Cavendish by 103.  Kittel moved up from 7th to 4th, but still trails Sagan by 137.

Cavendish figured in a bit of drama at the end.  As he charged out of the line to begin his final sprint, he bumped into Tom Veelers, from Kittel’s lead-out train just as Veelers peeled out to make way for Kittel’s sprint.  Veelers crashed, while Cavendish managed to stay upright, but it broke his rhythm just enough to keep him from catching Kittel and Greipel.  No penalty for Cavendish, but also no stage victory.

One hundred riders finished with the same time, but Daniel Moreno (Katusha) lost 1'40", which dropped him from 17th place to 18th, for the only change of standing in the GC top 20.  There should be some changes in that group after tomorrow’s individual time trial, but Chris Froome (Sky) will probably keep his Yellow Jersey.

I don't have any biking pictures relevant to today's stage.  But in two days the Tour heads across the Loire Valley, home of many of France's most amazing châteaux.  This hobby horse/cycle was on display in the Château Cheverny . . .

While, outside the château, we spotted this cool old Rolls Royce.

Then, while visiting the Château Villandy, we spotted another wonderful Rolls Royce . . .

. . .  and this super-cool Bentley.  They have nothing to do with the Tour de France, but they have wheels and I saw them in France, in the area where the Tour will soon pass through.  Does that count?

Stage Nine: Spanish Armada Attacks British Fleet

The Spanish Movistar team attacked Chris Froome’s British Team Sky today in the final stage of the Pyrénées, and exposed a possible weakness.  By maintaining the constant pressure of maximum speed through all five steep mountain climbs, Movistar was able to drop all of Froome’s teammates, leaving him to defend himself alone against most of his top rivals.  (Is Team Sky having second thoughts about leaving its Columbians Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Luis Henao off their roster?)  To his credit, Froome only lost time to two rivals – and only 20 seconds.

Daniel Martin (Garmin-Sharp) won the stage after attacking just before the summit of the final climb, followed closely by Jakob Fuglsang (Astana).  Froome’s Yellow Jersey peleton of 19 riders crossed the line 20 seconds later, with two stragglers at 25".  From there, the time gaps were 4 minutes, 7 minutes, 11 minutes, etc., up to the final riders arriving more than 26 minutes behind Martin.

As dangerous as Movistar’s aggression was for Froome, he actually solidified his hold on the Yellow Jersey.  Prior to Stage 9, 15 riders were within 3'07" of Froome; after the stage, only 12 riders are within that gap.  Only Martin and Fuglsang improved their times relative to Froome, and they are both in the bottom half of that challenging pack, at 2'28" and 3'07" respectively.  Andy Schleck (RadioShack), Cadel Evans (BMC) and Daniel Moreno (Katusha) clawed their way back into the top 20, but did not improve their times relative to Froome.  Losers from the previous top 20 were Richie Porte (Sky) from 2nd to 33rd place, Michael Rogers (Saxo) 10th to 18th, Andrew Talansky (Garmin) 12th to 22nd, Igor Anton (Euskaltel) 15th to 19th, and Haimar Zubeldia (RadioShack) 19th to 40th.

None of the leaders for the Green Jersey won any points today, so Peter Sagan (Cannondale) maintains his commanding lead.  Nairo Quintana (Movistar) retained his White Jersey (youth).  Pierre Rolland (Europcar) collected a few more climbing points and kept the Polka-dot Jersey.  Romain Bardet (AG2R) spent much of the race in attacking breakaway groups, and won the combativity award (red number dossard in next stage).  Movistar has a 4'11" lead over Saxo-Tinkoff for the team prize, with Belkin close behind at 5'22".

Tomorrow is a rest day, so there will be no post, unless I hear of something amazing to report.

Tuesday offers a flat stage, with probably a bunch sprint finish.  So, fireworks from Sagan, Greipel and Cavendish.  Wednesday is a flat individual time trial.  So, an opportunity for shifts in the top ranks for the Yellow Jersey.  Stay tuned.

This is the road leading into Bagnères de Bigorre, where Daniel Martin (Garmin) claimed victory in today's 9th Stage.  The race today came down this road in the opposite direction from these riders, who are beginning the climb to the Col du Tourmalet (2011).



When the Tour de France is not in town, Bagnères de Bigorre is a quiet little town, a doorway to the Pyrénées, with a good bike rental shop, if you want to try your own legs on the famous climbs from the Tour de France.  This photo from May, 2011 shows Matt Jensen, Aaron & Nan Kennard, and Ashley Jensen, ready to begin their assault on the Col du Tourmalet.

Stage Eight: Sky Wastes No Time Taking Command of the Race

The first 120 Km of Stage Eight were suitable to the sprinters, as the route descended gradually from Castre to Castelnaudary, the high point in the Canal du Midi, and then crossed the “Autoroute des deux Mers” (Freeway of the two Seas), to begin a gradual climb toward the foothills of the Pyrénées.  The usual breakaway of four riders arrived first at Quillan, the site of the intermediate sprint.  However, since Quillan is barely 100 meters higher in elevation than Castelnaudary (at 70 Km distance), the rest of the peleton were still all together and the big sprinters contested the remaining points.  André Greipel (Lotto Belisol) collected 11, Peter Sagan (Cannondale) 10, and Cavendish (Omega Pharma Quickstep) 9.  Bottom line: essentially no change for the Green Jersey with Sagan still leading the other two by about 100 points.

Then the fireworks began!  Teams Sky (for Chris Froome), Saxo-Tinkoff (Alberto Contador) and Belkin (Bauke Mollema) took control of the pace-setting as the roads shot skyward 1,700 meters in less than 50 Km to the summit at Col de Pailhères.  In short order, the peleton caught the original escape group and spat them out the back, along with all the sprinters.  By the summit, many of the GC hopefuls were either dismissed or on the brink of dismissal.  18 Km of downhill gave some temporary respite to those on the brink.  But the final 9 Km with 600 meters of climbing proved decisive in favor of Chris Froome and Team Sky.  Froome won the stage and claimed the Yellow Jersey.  His teammate Richie Porte took second almost a minute behind.  And only 16 other riders finished within 3 minutes of Froome.

Of the dozen riders we listed yesterday as likely leaders after Stage 8, only five remain within 3 minutes of the lead:

1 Chris Froome (Sky) leader
3 Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) at 1'25"
4 Bauke Mollema (Belkin) at 1'44"
7 Alberto Contador (Saxo-Tinkoff) at 1'51"
11 Rui Costa (Movistar) at 2'45", presumably riding in support of Valverde.

I predicted that Stage 8 would cut the number of contenders in half.  Check!  I predicted the stage would reveal a few “sleepers.”  Check!  Not all of the other nine riders within 3 minutes of Froome should be considered GC "sleepers" because they are riding in support of their team’s captain, and will not challenge for GC leadership unless their captain falters, such as:

2 Richie Porte (Sky) at 0'51", riding in support of Froome
5 Laurens Ten Dam (Belkin) at 1'50", riding for Mollema
6 Roman Kreuziger (Saxo-Tinkoff) at 1'51", riding for Contador (saved Contador’s bacon today!)
8 Nairo Quintana (Movistar) at 2'02", riding for Valverde (claimed White Jersey today!)
9 Joaquin Rodrigues (Katusha) at 2'31, a “sleeper” for GC
10 Michael Roger (Saxo-Tinkoff) at 2'40", riding for Contador
12 Andrew Talansky (Garmin-Sharp) at 2'48", “sleeper” (2nd place White Jersey), will he replace Ryder Hesjedal as designated GC chief?
13 Daniel Martin (Garmin-Sharp) at 2'48", “sleeper,” will he ride for Talansky? Or vice versa?
14 Mikel Nieve (Euskaltel-Euskadi) at 2'55", “sleeper.”

Who got cut on this first brutal day in the mountains?  Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) at 3'27", Andy Schleck (RadioShack Leopard) at 4'00", Cadel Evans, Tejay van Garderen and Philippe Gilbert (BMC) at 4'36", 12'38" and 29'25" respectively, Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) at 6'39", and Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) at 8'29".  True, one or two of them might claw their way back into the top ten by Paris.  But, barring a melt-down at Team Sky, they can stop dreaming of the Yellow Jersey.

About 40 Km east of Quillan, site of today's intermediate sprint, lie the ruins of Quéribus.  It is one of five hill-top fortresses in this region of the Pyrénées, known as the "five sons of Carcassonne."  800 years ago, Quéribus was the last of the Cathar refuges to fall to the invaders from Paris during the cruel Albigensian Crusade undertaken to exterminate the Cathar religion in Languedoc (now the south of France). 

Stage Seven: Sagan Scores Major Coup on Eve of Mountain Stages

Today’s stage traveled back in time along the rural roads of Languedoc in southern France: within 50 Km of the walled city of Carcassonne (first fortified by the Romans around 100 A.D.); parallel to the Canal du Midi (built in the late 1600's); and ending in Albi, the namesake town for the cruel Albigensian Crusade to exterminate the Cathar religion (early 1200's).  Peter Sagan’s Team Cannondale went on their own crusade today, to exterminate any last flickering hopes by other sprinters for the Green Jersey.

Like a team time trial train Cannondale pushed a punishing pace up the two climbs leading to the intermediate sprint.  Result, relegation of all Sagan’s closest rivals to a gasping grupetto 10 minutes behind his powerhouse peleton (zero intermediate points), and maximum points (20) for Sagan.  Then pushing on relentlessly to the finish, Cannondale delivered Sagan to the line for his first stage victory of this year’s Tour.  Maximum points again (45)!  The rivals staggered home almost 15 minutes later for no points at all.  Any later, and they would have missed the awards ceremony.

Tomorrow, the Pyrénées!  Finally, we will see some separation among the Yellow Jersey (GC) hopefuls.  How do the big favorites currently stand?  All within a minute of each other, achieved mostly in the team time trial of Stage 4.  In first place, Daryl Impey (Orica GreenEdge) wears the Yellow Jersey, but he is not likely to keep it another day.  In order of rank and time gap from Impey, the “Big Boys” are as follows:

7 Chris Froome (Sky) 8"
11 Alberto Contador (Saxo-Tinkoff) 14"
14 Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) 22"
17/18 Alejandro Valverde & Rui Costa (Movistar) 25"
22-24 Cadel Evans, Philippe Gilbert, & Tejay van Garderen (BMC) 31"
32 Andy Schleck (RadioShack Leopard) 34"
37 Bauke Mollema (Belkin) 42"
41 Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) 47", and
43 Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) 1'01".

That gives you a list of 12 potential winners among the current top 50.  By tomorrow night we’ll know if I overlooked one or two sleepers, and we’ll cut the number of possible winners in half.  The stage is relatively flat until the intermediate sprint at 119 Km, then it launches into a 50 Km “HC” climb straight up into the clouds, followed by 20 Km screaming down the twisting backside, and then 10 Km straight up to the category 1 summit finish.  The peleton will be shredded to pieces by the end of this stage.

Any big names already eliminated from the GC race?  Yes, at least two.  Jurgen van den Broeck (Lotto Belisol) did not start Stage 6 because of injuries in a crash the previous day.  Janez Brajkovic (Astana) did not start Stage 7, also because of injuries earlier in the race.  Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) has lost three supporting teammates; and Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) has lost a key helper in American Christian Vande Velde.

I don't have any pictures of Albi, of the Canal du Midi, nor of the Cathars being burned at the stake.  But this photo captures the size of the fortified cité of Carcassonne.  Today's stage passed 50 Km north of here; and tomorrow it passes even closer to the west as it heads into the Pyrénées.

Stage Six: Greipel Honors Fallen Teammate with Two Sprint Victories

On the hottest day of the Tour, racing along the flat Rhône River Valley roads across Provence and the Camargue, with the Mistral trying to blow them off the bikes, the Lotto Belisol team carried André Greipel to two sprint victories in honor of their fallen GC chief, Jurgen van den Broeck.  VDB fell victim to the big crash in the final 3 Km of Stage 5.  He finished that stage, but could not start Stage 6 because of a knee injury suffered in the crash.  There go his Yellow Jersey hopes for the second time in four years!

Why is that bad for Mark Cavendish of Omega Pharma Quickstep?  Because Lotto will now concentrate all its energies on helping Greipel win sprints, stages and the Green Jersey, that’s why!  Need proof?  Greipel won both the intermediate sprint and the finishing sprint in today’s stage ending in Montpelier.  For frosting on the cake, he also won the day’s prize for most combative, and will wear a red number dossard tomorrow.  Cavendish was second in the sprint and fourth at the finish, losing 22 points to Greipel and 5 to Peter Sagan (Cannondale).  Cavendish’s low placement at the finish may be partly attributable to his crash earlier in the stage.  Bad luck!  Sagan is always disappointed when he doesn’t win a stage.  But, in the meantime, he continues to accumulate points.  He leads Greipel by 29, and Cavendish by 40 for the Green Jersey.

Tomorrow’s stage to Albi should be one last sprinters’ stage before the mountains.  But with two medium climbs before the intermediate sprint, Mark Cavendish risks being shut-out on those middle points. These two climbs might also entice a strong breakaway, which could erode the intermediate points and even threaten the stage finale.  Sagan is versatile enough to score points at both lines in this kind of stage, and maybe Greipel is too.  But Cavendish could well lose ground again tomorrow.

With the first 124 riders crossing the finish line in a bunch, and losing no more than 5" to the stage winner, this stage had little impact on the final GC standings.  But, by placing higher at the finish, Daryl Impey (Orica GreenEdge) did leap-frog his teammate Simon Gerrans for the glory of wearing the Yellow Jersey in tomorrow’s stage.  First time ever for a rider from South Africa!  Edvald Boasson Hagan also slipped in above Garrans for 2nd place.

In case you missed the tearful video replays, American Edward “Ted” King (Cannondale) missed the time delay by 7 seconds in the team time trial on Tuesday (Stage 4).  Because of injuries he suffered in a crash during Stage 1, he was unable to match the pace of his team, so he rode the entire course with no one to draft on.  He appealed his disqualification, but to no avail.  His parents came to France to watch him race, but ended up instead helping him pack up for home. The Tour de France can break your heart!

Today's stage crossed the Rhône River at Tarascon/Beaucaire, just a few miles south of this famous Roman aqueduct, the Pont du Gard . . .

. . . and just a few miles north of this ancient Roman amphitheater at Arles.

Then it continued west, passing just south of Nîmes, site of this well-preserved Roman arena . . .

. . . and continued across the Carmargue, a marshy nature preserve, home to flamingos, white horses, black bulls and the "Guardiens" (French cowboys) who ride the horses and raise the bulls.  This photo of the old "Winter Garden" in Arles shows the crest for the Camargue (below center) and the crest for Arles (top).  Sadly, when we went back to Arles in 2011, we found that the Winter Garden had been replaced by a car park.  That's progress for you!

Stages Four and Five: More Glory for Australia/Orica; Cavendish Finally Scores!

The Australian team Orica GreenEdge capitalized on its momentum from Stage 3 by winning the Stage 4 team time trial at Nice by a mere 0.76 second.  Still, no matter how close the margin, a win is a win.  Their second stage win of this Tour.  And their Simon Gerrans keeps his Yellow Jersey for another day.

In Stage 5, a long ride of 228 Km from Nice to Marseille, the sprint teams did their jobs.  They caught the 6-man breakaway group with 4 Km to go, and then ran their set-up trains for a head-to-head contest of their chief sprinters.  Mark Cavendish rewarded his Omega Pharma Quickstep team by powering to his first stage victory of this Tour.  Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky) took 2nd, Peter Sagan (Cannondale) 3rd, and André Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 4th.  Cavendish moved into 2nd place for the Green Jersey, but, as I predicted, Sagan minimized Mark’s gain by matching his points in the intermediate sprint, and staying close at the finish. Still, Green Jersey or no, you have to admire Cavendish.  He now has 24 career stage wins at the Tour de France!  Most riders could reap a lifetime of bragging rights with even one Tour stage win.

Simon Gerrans (Orica GreenEdge) finished close enough to the sprinters, and in the same time, so he keeps his Yellow Jersey for yet another day.

The sprinters and their teams will need to control the next two stages, as they did today, if they want any more glory before the Tour heads into the Pyrénées.  They must monitor and capture the early escape each day, and they must execute their set-up and sprint finish to perfection.  When the mountain stages start on Saturday and Sunday, the objective of the sprinters will be to finish within the time delay!

Orica GreenEdge may well keep the Yellow Jersey through Friday, but on Saturday, with a category 1 summit finish (after an HC summit 30 Km out), the REAL contenders for the Yellow Jersey will move to the top of the GC (General Classification) standings.  In case you’ve forgotten “HC” stands for “hors catégorie” and refers to climbs that are harder than category 1, i.e., non-categorized.  Sunday’s stage has a downhill finish, but it will, nevertheless, further refine the GC standings, with four category 1 climbs, and a cat. 2 thrown in near the end, just for good measure.

Today's stage ended in Marseille.  I shot these photos at the Vieux Port (Old Port) in that ancient city where the fishermen come in off the Mediterranean Sea and sell their catch right off the boat.  These were taken in 1966 (while I was serving a mission for the LDS ("Mormon") Church in that part of France), but the scene  would have been familiar in Roman times, and would still be essentially the same today.

Stage Three: From Laughing Stock to Hero – Gerrans Restores Dignity to Australia.

Orica’s bumbling buscapades from Stage 1 went viral on YouTube, and must have embarrassed Crocodile Dundee and Aussies everywhere.  But today, Simon Gerrans (Orica GreenEdge) out-dueled Peter Sagan (Cannondale) for Orica’s first-ever stage win at the Tour.  Orica claimed double glory when Simon Clarke earned the red number dossard for the Most Combative rider of the day.

Looking back at my blog from the 2012 Tour de France, I find that after Stage 6, I christened Peter Sagan “Super Nova,” and predicted he would win the Green Jersey.  He was a bright new star last year, and he fulfilled my prediction.  Now, this year, his brilliance only increases, and I am compelled to make the same prediction after only three stages!  Super Nova Sagan will own the Green Jersey again in Paris.

The Green Jersey goes to the rider with the most points.  Points are awarded for high placements at one intermediate sprint in each road stage, and for high placements at each stage finish.  The intermediate sprint points start at 20 for first place and decline for the next 14 places.  For “flat” stages (like Stage 1), which are suitable for the pure sprinters to fight head-to-head, the winner gets 45 points, declining to 15th place.  For “rolling” stages (like Stages 2 and 3), top points are 30.  For “mountain” stages, top points are only 20.

Because most stages have a breakaway group, who collect the highest points at the intermediate sprints, the pure sprinters must fight for the lower places worth only 10, 9, or 8 points.  On the flat stages, a sprinter like Mark Cavendish might win the stage and collect 45 points, but his rival sprinters will collect almost as many points for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, places, etc.  Where the pure sprinters miss out is during the rolling and mountain stages.  They seldom stay with the main GC peleton all the way to the finish, so they collect no points there; and they often fall behind the peleton even prior to the intermediate sprint, so again no points.  But Peter Sagan is a star of a different magnitude.  He wins his share of sprint finishes, and collects defensive points for high placements when he does not win outright.  He collects intermediate sprint points on flat stages at about the same pace as the other sprinters.  But he can also climb with the GC riders, so he collects intermediate sprint points on rolling and mountain stages.  Finally, because of his climbing strengths, he can stay with the peleton all the way to the finish on rolling or mountain stages, and collect points there as well.  In the first three stages, only Peter Sagan has collected points at 5 of the 6 opportunities.  The crash at the end of Stage 1 prevented him from collecting high points at that finish.  But at every other points-award mark, he has collected high points.

If Mark Cavendish were to win 5 sprint stages (225 points), but Sagan were to place closely behind him, the points difference would be small, and Sagan would more than make up that difference with points in the rolling and mountain stages where Cavendish will struggle to collect any points.  Furthermore, Cavendish won’t win all of those sprint stages, because they will be shared among the other strong sprinters, such as Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano), André Greipel (Omega Pharma Quickstep), David Millar (Garmin-Sharp), Matt Goss (Orica GreenEdge), Peter Sagan (of course!) and several others.

So, that’s my prediction, and I’m sticking to it – Super Nova Peter Sagan will win the Green Jersey again this year.

I don't have any photos of a super nova, nor of Peter Sagan.  But his sudden brilliant appearance on the cycling scene is comparable to these two comets:  Above, Comet PANStars 2013 (to the left of the Moon); below, Comet Hale-Bopp 1997.  (Both photos by blog author, Raeburn Kennard.)

Stage Two: Belgian Bakelants Holds Off Charging Sagan for First Stage Win!

Jan Bakelants (RadioShack Leopard) launched an attack within the final 7 Km of today’s race, and held on by the skin of his teeth to win his first ever professional stage victory.  Peter Sagan (Cannondale) led the charging peleton across the line just one second later.

Marcel Kittel (Argos Shimano) surrenders his Yellow Jersey to Bakelants, and his White Jersey to Michal Kwiatkowski (Omega Pharma Quickstep); but with 47 total points he retains the Green Jersey, if only for one more day.
With three tough climbs in the first half of the race, the pure sprinters were dropped from the peleton before the capture of the initial breakaway group.  This created the opportunity for Bakelants and others to stage their late attack, from which only Bakelants survived - barely!  It also created the opportunity for Sagan to harvest not only intermediate sprint points (10), but also 2nd place stage points (25), giving him 43 total – 13 points ahead of Millar and more than 20 points ahead of Greipel, Cavendish, and Goss.  With four mountains in tomorrow’s stage, Sagan will likely pass Kittel and take over the Green Jersey.  Will he keep it all the way to Paris?

The Polka-dot Jersey changed hands today, as expected.  Pierre Rolland (Europcar) captured it by winning the category 2 climb of the day.  This jersey will continue to change hands until the big mountains of the Pyrénées, Mt. Ventoux, and the Alps have been contested.

The White Jersey went to Michal Kwiatkowski (Omega Pharma Quickstep) based on finish placement.  However, 18 of the 35 eligible “youth” riders have the same time, including Americans Andrew Talanksy (Garmin-Sharp) and Tejay van Garderen (BMC).  Like the climbers’ jersey, the final winner of the White Jersey will be decided later in the race.

In honor of Jan Bakelants' victory today, I present this photo of his RadioShack Leopard team car, from the 2011 Tour of Utah.  (Courtesy of Scott Wolford.)

Stage One: German Conquers Napoleon’s Home Island! Alternate Title: Keystone Kops invade Corsica

Two centuries after Napoleon ruled Germany, German rider Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano) has conquered Corsica, the island of Napoleon’s birth.  In a finish worthy of the Keystone Kops, Kittel (pronounced “key-TELL”) powered up on the left side, to eclipse in the final 20 meters Alexander Kristoff (Katusha), Danny Van Poppel (Vacansoleil), and David Millar (Garmin-Sharp).  Winning the opening stage give Kitell not only the Yellow Jersey for at least the next day of racing, but also the Green Jersey (points/sprinter) and the White Jersey (youth).

So, why the reference to the Keystone Kops?  With about 30 minutes or less to go before the peleton would come screaming through the archway at the finish line, Orica-GreenEdge’s team bus tried to drive through the archway in the opposite direction.  Oops!  The bus (a fancy motorhome on steroids) got stuck under the archway!  Tour staff were seen running around in a panic trying to get the bus free.  When that seemed impossible, they announced that the finish line would now be 3 Km earlier (where the 3 Km-to-go electronic timing gate was already installed).  That news was relayed by radio to the riders as they sped along with only about 15 Km to go.  The change impacted strategies, because it eliminated a tricky U-turn the riders would have had to deal with at the 2 Km mark.  So, there was confusion and consternation in the peleton as the sprinters’ teams were adjusting and lining up to deliver their heros to the new finish line.

Then, some genius got the idea of deflating the tires on the Orica team bus.  Voila!  It was able to back out from underneath the structure at the original finish line.  (The backing maneuver apparently executed by Bud Abbot and Lou Costello, as the bus fish-tailed its way clear of the archway!)  So, with about 5 Km to go to the original line (within 2 Km of the provisional line), the Tour organizers decided to change back to the original line.  Remember, the cyclists are racing at close to 50 Km/hour!  These changes are flying at them in their radios within mere minutes of the 3 Km line, and maybe only 10 minutes of the original line.  Confusion ruled the peleton.  Suddenly, like dominoes, half the peleton hit the deck!  Peter Sagan (Cannondale) and Alberto Contador (Saxo-Tinkoff) were among those who crashed.  André Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) and Mark Cavendish (Omega Pharma Quickstep) either crashed or were held up by the crash.  Kittel was among the lucky ones riding just ahead of the crash, enabling him to contest and win the sprint finish.

The entire peleton was given the same time as the winner, so, even though Kittel wears the Yellow Jersey, none of the GC hopefuls lost any time.

This stage had only one small mountain, a category 4, worth only one point toward the Polka-dot Jersey, and it was won by Juan José Lobato (Euskaltel), who jumped into the early breakaway group, and then powered past his escape partners for this bit of cash prize and life-long record book glory on his very first stage of his very first Tour de France!  How excited was he?!!

The sprinters’ teams – Omega, Argos and Lotto – played the “cat” all day to the five escapees’ “mouse.”  After 70 Km in the lead, the five saw their time gap eaten down from 3'10" to less than 40".  They sat up, expecting to be swallowed up by the peleton.  But the peleton also slowed down and let them re-extend their lead, this time to more than 4 minutes.  Once again, the sprint teams picked up the pace of the peleton and reeled the leaders back to the point of almost catching them.  Then, the call of nature in the peleton, and the lead was back over 3 minutes.  The sprint teams used this yo-yo strategy for over 100 Km, preferring this little “mouse” that they could easily catch at will, to some unknown opportunist from the peleton with fresh legs who might launch a stage-threatening attack if the “mouse” were caught too early.  This did mean that the escapees collected the high points on the intermediate sprint, leaving the “Big Boy” sprinters to battle for the minor points, which went to Greipel (10), Cavendish (9), Peter Sagan (Cannondale) (8) and Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) (6).

Tomorrow’s Stage 2 has three steep climbs in the first 95 Km, which makes a sprint finish unlikely, and opens the door for the climbers and GC hopefuls to distinguish themselves.  It also lends itself to a bold breakaway – especially for someone who can capitalize on the steep descents over the final 60 Km.  Add to that the fact that two-time champion Alberto Contador got some nasty road-rash in the first day’s big crash.  He finished the stage, but his rivals might think Stage Two an opportune time to attack him; and, on the other hand, the indignities he suffered today might inspire him to new heights tomorrow.  Should be an exciting day!

Imagine the domino effect of a crash in a peleton like this racing down the road at 50 Km/hour!  That was the scene in today's Stage 1.  (Photo 2011 Tour of Utah, courtesy of Scott Wolford.)

Roster Ruminations, Part V – Saxo-Tinkoff and other GC Contenders/Pretenders

Saxo-Tinkoff:  We’ve already covered GC contenders Chris Froome (Sky), Cadel Evans (BMC), and Andy Schleck (RadioShack-Leopard), as well as Ryder Hesjedal and others at Garmin-Sharp.  It’s time we devoted some ink to the third former champion in this year’s Tour, Alberto Contador (Saxo-Tinkoff).  He returns to the Tour with solid support from Roman Kreuziger, Nicolas Roche, Michael Rogers and other seasoned riders.  The organizers have given the mountain stages extra emphasis in this year’s race, and Contador can climb with the best.  Do not expect him to be satisfied with a defensive strategy, but look for him to attack often on the steep climbs.

Now for a summary, in no particular order, of several other teams with legitimate GC riders, any one of whom could out-shine the so-called favorites:

Astana:   Jakob Fuglsang should have been a star for RadioShack last year, but they excluded him from the Tour roster for complaining about team management.  Imagine being upset just because of no paychecks!  He’s having a good year on this new team, with three top-ten finishes, and would dearly love to put an exclamation point on his defection by beating Andy Schleck and possibly making the GC podium in Paris.  Rising Slovak star Janez Brajkovic gives Jakob a super-domestique, and he could even give Astana a second top-ten finisher in the GC battles. Watch out for the robin-egg blue jerseys of Astana!

Katusha:  Spanish climber Joaquim Rodriguez aims for a high GC placement in this year’s Tour, and will not back down from the anointed favorites.  Compatriot Daniel Moreno (winner of the 2013 Fleche de Wallonne) will second Rodriguez.

Lotto-Belisol: Belgian rider Jurgen van den Broeck already has two top-five finishes at the Tour (2010 and 2012).  He could fly under the radar and pull off a big surprise.  In a previous post, I’ve already listed his teammate, German champion André Greipel, who plans to keep the “Big Boy Sprinters” honest.  Lotto-Belisol will chase two dreams: a top GC finish for Jurgen van den Broeck and stage wins (or even the Green Jersey) for André Greipel.

Cofidis: This French team has four possible challengers for GC glory.  Two French riders, Christophe Le Mével (10th in 2010) and Jérôme Coppel (14th in 2011), plus Spaniard Daniel Navarro and Estonian Rein Taaramae.  Could one of them wear the Yellow Jersey for a while this year, or finish in the top 10?  Either result would be glory for Cofidis, one of the “wildcard” teams in the race.

Movistar:  I have already highlighted Rui Costa in my recent report on the Tour de Suisse.  But Movistar has other GC hopefuls as well: Alejandro Valverde, and Tour rookies Nairo Quintana and Jonathan Castroviejo.

FDJ: Do you remember Thibeau Pinot from the 2012 race?  He finished in GC 10th place last year, and was narrowly beaten by Tejay van Garderen for the White Jersey (best young rider) only in the waning stages of the race.

Summary:  This gives us about 20 riders who could realistically challenge for the Yellow Jersey.  The hazards of illness, accidents, bad weather, and mechanical problems will almost certainly eliminate some of them (even the favorites) from contention.  Beyond that, an inspired ride here, some brilliant teamwork there, or even a strategical lapse somewhere else, all could turn the GC contest upside down.  The mountain stages and the time trials will be the most important in the GC battle, but even in the flat stages, each team will need to  carefully watch the daily breakaway groups to prevent any of these top GC threats from seizing a big time gap.

Sign-off:  With that, I sign off until tomorrow for the Grand Départ (the first stage) in Corsica.  Remember, there are lots of prizes (not just GC), so every stage has its drama; and often several threads of drama are interwoven in a single stage.  I’m so excited, I may not even sleep tonight!

May, 2011, Jurgen van den Broeck (Lotto-Bellisol) has just finished a training ride climbing to the summit of the Col du Tourmalet in the French Pyrénées, and whom should he encounter?  None other that Matt Jensen, mastermind-organizer of the famous Three Kings cycling challenge in North Salt Lake!  Did they exchange autographs?  Did VDB whip out his cell phone and grab a photo of King Matt?  Are they facebook friends?  You should have been there!

Roster Ruminations, Part IV – Omega Pharma Quickstep and Cannondale

Omega Pharma Quickstep:  This Belgian team might as well call itself “Mark Cavendish’s Sweet Revenge.”  Cavendish jumped from Team Sky where his sprinting prowess played second fiddle to the Yellow Jersey aspirations of Brad Wiggins and Chris Froome, and landed on a team that appreciates his brand of glory.  With time trial powerhouse Tony Martin heading up the lead-out train, OPQ has a good mix of riders to maximize Cavendish’s quest for more TDF bunch sprint wins, and hopefully this year’s Green Jersey.  They include Frenchmen Sylvain Chavenel and Jerome Pineau, along with the polyglot collection of Michal Kwiatkowski (Poland), Gert Steegmans (Belgium), Niki Terpstra (Netherlands), Matteo Trentin (Italy), and Peter Velits (Slovakia). 

In the flat stages, the team will fight to reel in the early escapees, and to set up Mark for the sprint finish.  They will keep an eye on Peter Sagan (Cannondale) to limit his acquisition of intermediate sprint points.  And they will help Cavendish through the mountains so that he doesn’t get eliminated from the race through failing to finish those stages within the time delay.  Of course, they will ride to protect him from accidents all along the way.  If they are not busy with those tasks, riders such as Pineau and Chavenel will likely look for opportunities to join attack groups for possible surprise stage victories.  Tony Martin will shine in the time trials. 

Cannondale: This may say more about my ignorance than about the nondescript nature of Cannondale’s 2013 Tour roster, but the only name I recognize is that of Peter Sagan.  The lack of marquee teammates has not prevented Sagan from having another amazing year in which he has already more than a dozen race or stage victories, along with the points jersey in both the Tour of California and the Tour de Suisse.  Mark Cavendish may have a slight edge over Sagan as a pure sprinter, but Peter has more versatility.  I expect Sagan to win at least a couple of stages in this year’s Tour de France, and to aggressively try for intermediate sprint points throughout the race.  The battle for the Green Jersey will likely come down to Sagan’s intermediate points vs. Cavendish’s points from sprint finish stage victories.