Stage Three: From Laughing Stock to Hero – Gerrans Restores Dignity to Australia.

Orica’s bumbling buscapades from Stage 1 went viral on YouTube, and must have embarrassed Crocodile Dundee and Aussies everywhere.  But today, Simon Gerrans (Orica GreenEdge) out-dueled Peter Sagan (Cannondale) for Orica’s first-ever stage win at the Tour.  Orica claimed double glory when Simon Clarke earned the red number dossard for the Most Combative rider of the day.

Looking back at my blog from the 2012 Tour de France, I find that after Stage 6, I christened Peter Sagan “Super Nova,” and predicted he would win the Green Jersey.  He was a bright new star last year, and he fulfilled my prediction.  Now, this year, his brilliance only increases, and I am compelled to make the same prediction after only three stages!  Super Nova Sagan will own the Green Jersey again in Paris.

The Green Jersey goes to the rider with the most points.  Points are awarded for high placements at one intermediate sprint in each road stage, and for high placements at each stage finish.  The intermediate sprint points start at 20 for first place and decline for the next 14 places.  For “flat” stages (like Stage 1), which are suitable for the pure sprinters to fight head-to-head, the winner gets 45 points, declining to 15th place.  For “rolling” stages (like Stages 2 and 3), top points are 30.  For “mountain” stages, top points are only 20.

Because most stages have a breakaway group, who collect the highest points at the intermediate sprints, the pure sprinters must fight for the lower places worth only 10, 9, or 8 points.  On the flat stages, a sprinter like Mark Cavendish might win the stage and collect 45 points, but his rival sprinters will collect almost as many points for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, places, etc.  Where the pure sprinters miss out is during the rolling and mountain stages.  They seldom stay with the main GC peleton all the way to the finish, so they collect no points there; and they often fall behind the peleton even prior to the intermediate sprint, so again no points.  But Peter Sagan is a star of a different magnitude.  He wins his share of sprint finishes, and collects defensive points for high placements when he does not win outright.  He collects intermediate sprint points on flat stages at about the same pace as the other sprinters.  But he can also climb with the GC riders, so he collects intermediate sprint points on rolling and mountain stages.  Finally, because of his climbing strengths, he can stay with the peleton all the way to the finish on rolling or mountain stages, and collect points there as well.  In the first three stages, only Peter Sagan has collected points at 5 of the 6 opportunities.  The crash at the end of Stage 1 prevented him from collecting high points at that finish.  But at every other points-award mark, he has collected high points.

If Mark Cavendish were to win 5 sprint stages (225 points), but Sagan were to place closely behind him, the points difference would be small, and Sagan would more than make up that difference with points in the rolling and mountain stages where Cavendish will struggle to collect any points.  Furthermore, Cavendish won’t win all of those sprint stages, because they will be shared among the other strong sprinters, such as Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano), André Greipel (Omega Pharma Quickstep), David Millar (Garmin-Sharp), Matt Goss (Orica GreenEdge), Peter Sagan (of course!) and several others.

So, that’s my prediction, and I’m sticking to it – Super Nova Peter Sagan will win the Green Jersey again this year.

I don't have any photos of a super nova, nor of Peter Sagan.  But his sudden brilliant appearance on the cycling scene is comparable to these two comets:  Above, Comet PANStars 2013 (to the left of the Moon); below, Comet Hale-Bopp 1997.  (Both photos by blog author, Raeburn Kennard.)