Last Pre-race Post - Yellow Jersey and Sprint Predictions

On the eve of the Grand Départ in Utrecht, Netherlands (Holland) let me cover three topics:

1.  Identifying likely contenders for the Yellow Jersey

2.  Identifying likely sprint winners

3.  Identifying Tour regulars and fan favorites absent from the 2015 Tour de France

1.  Likely Contenders for the Yellow Jersey.   The Yellow Jersey is the coveted prize for the rider with the fastest cumulative time at the end of all of the 21 stages – three weeks of racing.  This prize category is also referred to as the General Classification or GC.  At the end of each stage, the rider leading in this category is awarded the Yellow Jersey for the next stage, and keeps it until another rider improves upon his cumulative time.

The unofficial “Big Three” GC contenders this year are Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo), and Chris Froome (Sky).  Each has already won the Tour de France before.  Each is a first-rate climber, and each has the backing of a corps of  equally strong climbers to support him. 

There are seven mountain stages where the GC battle will be decided.  Three in the Pyrénées during the second week; and four in the Alps during the third and final week.  This program favors the team that can burn through a succession of “domestiques” at the front of the peleton, forcing a murderous pace.  Their own designated leader will follow in the sheltered slip-stream of his teammate pace-setters, while the other GC contenders and their teams are forced, one after the other, to drop out of the ever-shrinking peleton.  Then, when most of the GC hopefuls have been dropped, the leader of the pace-setting team launches an attack on any remaining contenders to create a time differential and take control of the Yellow Jersey.

Sky worked this strategy to perfection in 2012 (Wiggins & Froome 1^st & 2^nd) and in 2013 (Froome 1^st).  In 2014, with Froome and Contador both victims of early accidents, Astana used the same strategy to send Nibali to a dominating victory.  Barring accidents, I see Sky (Froome) as having the strongest climbing team, followed very closely by Tinkoff-Saxo (Contador).  Astana (Nibali) is missing two strong climbers (Aru and Landa), and learned on the eve of Stage One that Lars Boom is out because of a low cortisol test.  This news came too late to activate a replacement, so Astana will only have 8 riders.  Therefore, Astana will likely be weaker than those other two teams.  I’ll go out on a limb and pick Contador, just because he’s so motivated to complete the “Triple Crown” all in a row – Tours of Spain, Italy and France.

So, does anyone else have a chance?  The other GC leaders will need to be mostly defensive – being sure to match the fast pace set by the Big Three throughout the seven mountain stages.  And then, they will need to launch one or more perfectly timed attacks in order to gain enough time to steal the Yellow Jersey.  Nairo Quintana (Movistar) is capable matching almost anyone’s pace, so he has a chance to win it all, but it will require some luck and perfect timing when he decides to attack.  His Movistar teammate Alejandro Valverde is a strong climber, but will be riding in support of Quintana.  The main American hope is Tejay Van Garderen (BMC).  Like Quintana, he will need to mostly ride to match the Big Three pace, and then find just the right moment to spring a surprise attack.  My final candidate for possible glory would be Bauke Mollema (Trek).  Like the other two, he does not have the team that can dominate the pace.  So, he will need to match the pace, and then be ready to attack when (or if) the opportunity arises.  Of these latter three riders, I give Quintana the best chance to pull off the upset.

Just as a matter of interest, the odds-makers rate the Big Three and Quintana at 5:1 or better (with Quintana having the best odds).  Van Garderen is rated at 33:1; Mollema at 200:1 – with Cadel Evans, Franck Schleck and Jurgen Van den Broeck (all absent from the Tour this year!) at the same 200:1 odds.  Is that a vote of No-Confidence or what?

2.  Likely Sprint Winners. 

The stages most likely to end in a sprint finish are Stages 2 through 8, in the first week of the Tour, possibly a couple of stages between the Pyrénées and the Alps, and the final stage into Paris – maximum of 10 stages.  To win a sprint, the rider must first have a team willing and able to push the pace of the peleton in order to catch the inevitable breakaway in each stage.  Then, having caught the breakaway, the rider’s team must provide him with a “lead-out train” of riders to carry him at top speed to the front of the peleton, where he can launch into overdrive for the final 100 meters or so to nip the other sprint specialists in a photo-finish at the line.

The undisputed best sprinter in the field is Mark Cavendish (Etixx-Quickstep).  His team is built specifically to help him win stages, and he has the experience to make his own luck (a very key ingredient).  I expect him to win at least three stages, and five would not be out of the question.  So, who are the other riders who might hope to pick up the scraps?  The following is a list of likely stage winners, in no particular order of strength.  Norwegian Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) has won 20 stages in the last 12 months, since winning two stages at the 2014 TDF.  Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo).  In spite of winning two stages and the overall GC Yellow Jersey at the Tour of California, Sagan’s team owner is disappointed in his results this season, so he needs to win at least one stage, and he needs to win the Green Jersey for sprinting points.  Both are within his reach, be he is not likely to match Cavendish for stage wins.  (Cavendish won three stages at the Tour of California.)   Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis), perhaps the most promising rising French star, has been having a very good year, winning sprints against top competition.  Fabian Cancellara (Treck).  He is more likely to shine in the time trial, but he could also win a sprint stage.  John Degenkolb (Giant Alpecin) is a young German sprinter with great promise, and will be supported by his team in the absence of Marcel Kittel (injuries).  Edvald Boassen Hagan and American Tyler Farrer (MTN-Qhubeka) are both capable sprinters.  Bryan Coquard (Europcar) is another young French sprinter with a lot of promise.  As you can see, it will be very crowded at the spear-head of the peleton on the sprint stages.

3.  Who is Absent This Year? 

Here is a list of well-known GC contenders or strong climbers who will not participate in this year’s Tour de France.  Both Andy and Franck Schleck (injuries and/or retirement).  Brad Wiggins, Cadel Evans.  Jurgen Van den Broeck.  The Herrada brothers, and the Henao brothers.  Benat Intxausti.  Simon Clarke.  Americans, Tom Danielson, Matthew Busche and the King brothers.  Yaroslav Paulinho.  Fabio Aru, rising star of Astana – it appears Nibali did not want to risk sharing the limelight with him.

The following well-known sprinters are absent this year, leaving a few stage wins possibly up for grabs:  André Greipel (injury).  Marcel Kittel (injury).  Philippe Gilbert (injury).  

 Simon Clarke (Orica Greenedge) - rider on right - during Stage 12, 2014 Tour de France (Lyon).  Clarke is absent for the 2015 Tour.