Stage 9 – Does First Week Predict All Three?

The three GC leaders finished today’s long time trial with about the same positions relative to each other as they had in the Prologue short time trial.  This means that Wiggions (Sky) increased his lead over Evans (BMC) and Nibali (Liq).  As a bonus, Wiggins won his first stage of the Tour, and his teammate Chris Froome moved ahead of Nibali into 3^rd place.  If this first week is representative of the remaining two weeks, Wiggins will wear the yellow jersey from now until the end.  The pressure is on for Evans and Nibali to wage one or more successful and substantial attacks in the 6 upcoming mountain stages.  Wiggins has so far showed that Team Sky’s strength and depth are more than adequate to ward off any such attacks.  Are we about to witness a monumental blowout?

The green jersey seems almost as safely on the back of Peter Sagan.  None of the sprint contenders finished in the top 20 of today’s time trial, so that race remains unchanged.

The youth classification white jersey is still very much in play.  Tejay Van Garderen (BMC) won it back today from Rein Taaramae (Cofidis), but Taaramae and Tony Gallopin (RadioShack) are within one minute.  Tejay and Tony will be riding for their teams’ GC contenders, and may have to sacrifice themselves in the mountains; while Rein is the GC man for his team, and will be trying to stay close to Wiggins and Evans.  This suggests that Taaramae will likely re-take the white jersey in the mountains.  Will he have a big enough lead to keep it through the final time trial in the penultimate stage?  Too close to call.

The polka-dot King of the Mountains jersey is a mystery.  Current GC leaders Wiggins, Evans and Froome are in the top 4 for the climber prize, and they are likely to score more points as they battle through the mountains.  However, the points only go to the first few riders over each summit, so the climbing points could be harvested mostly by opportunist breakaways.  The GC boys will not challenge the breakaways as long as none of the attackers is a GC contender.  Current polka-dot jersery holder Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) is 24 minutes down in the GC standings, so he should be free to attack for more climbing points.  Current 4^th place Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) is only nine minutes down in the GC, so he will not be given as much freedom.  Down in 10^th place, with only 5 climbing points—16 less than Kessiakoff—is Jeremy Roy.  He has good mountain legs, a history of joining escapes, and is 36 minutes behind in the GC standings.  He will be allowed to attack for climbing points if he wants to.  Early jersey holder Michael Morkov (SaxoBank) (9 points) might want to regain it, but he does not have the mountain pedigree, so he will have to be satisfied with his early days of glory.

The Tour de France is not for the faint-hearted.  The Basque team of Euskaltel Euskadi has lost 4 riders already to accidents, including their GC favorite Samuel Sanchez.  Garmin has lost 3 riders, including GC contender Ryder Hesjedal, and American favorite Tom Danielson.  Movistar has also lost 3 riders, including Joaquim Rojas, one of my early GC picks. 

Tomorrow is a rest day, so I may not have a new post.  Unless I receive some burst of inspiration.  See you on Wednesday.

Speaking of the mountains, we found this quaint little bed and breakfast nestled against the hills in Dordogne (Rocamdour).  Doesn't it just make you want to drop everything and take a vacation to France?