Stage 3 - Yes and No on my predictions; More Glory for Sagan

I predicted the hilly finish would fragment the peleton, and that the GC leaders would protect their positions. True. True.  65 riders (out of 196) finished in the first peleton, followed by a long line of stragglers and little groups, and then a trailing peleton of about 50 riders at 7'27" behind the leaders. Then, more stragglers to 16'29". Definitely a fragmented peleton. Most of the GC contenders held their positions, with a few dropping out of the top 50. For every one who dropped, others moved up in ranking, but no one improved his time compared to the yellow jersey.

I also predicted a possible breakaway winner, but not a GC contender, and implicit in that would be no fight at the line among the sprinters. False. False. False.  Instead of a low-ranking breakaway winner, we had a sprint finish among the few sprinters who survived all of the hills. It was won by the Super Nova, Peter Sagan, who moved from 22^nd place to 15^th place and was the only rider to improve his time relative to Cancellara, the yellow jersey.  Even better for Sagan was winning back 28 green jersey points from Cavendish, to make up for the 26 points he had lost to the Manx Missile the day before. Best of all, of course is Sagan’s second stage win in the first four days of his very first Tour de France. He did it by out-sprinting Boasson Hagan, Peter Velits, Cancellara and Albasini in a steep uphill finish. I believe he has their attention.

Morkov continued to show respect for his polka-dot best-climber jersey by joining the breakaway for the third straight day, and collecting points on the first four climbs. In the process, he won the prize for most combative. He’s not a GC contender, and he may not win any stages, but he is capturing a basket full of glory for his rookie appearance. He’s a real hero to all the underdogs of the cycling world.

Two crashes resulted in two riders abandoning the Tour: Sivstov (Sky) and Rojas (Mov). Each held the number nine spot on his team, but their loss could still have an impact. Team Sky needs all of its domestiques to lift and protect both Bradley Wiggins, in his quest for the yellow jersey, and Mark Cavendish, in his bid for the green jersey. Working for two leaders like that has already put pressure on the Sky support riders. They can ill afford to lose one.

The organizers of the Tour this year have intentionally added lots of small-but-steep climbs to their ordinarily flat stages. In today’s stage that feature eliminated most of the usual sprinters from the finale. Tomorrow’s Stage 4 may not be quite as brutal on the sprinters, but there is one steep hill 12 Km from the finish that could separate the sheep from the goats (mountain goats, that is). If Cavendish wants to win this stage he will need his team to carry him over that last-minute hurdle. "Little bumps" like that don’t seem to faze Peter Sagan. Look for Sagan to add points to his green jersey lead.

Stage 5 and Stage 6 (Thursday and Friday) look like carbon copies of Stage 2, and are tailor-made for Mark Cavendish. Anyone else wanting to win either of those stages will need to beat Cavendish at his strength. None of Stages 4 through 6 should result in much change in the GC picture. Morkov could go for a fourth breakaway in a row in Stage 4 to add points for his polka-dot jersey. He might as well. He will need as many of these little climbing points as he can get if he wants to retain the King of the Mountain jersey once the Tour enters the real mountains (Stage 7 and beyond).

Next week, the Tour de France will be climbing in the Alps.