Stage 6 - The Impact of Accidents

In my June 28 post, I listed various ways riders can lose the Tour de France. For example, I said "they might get caught up in an accident-even without injuries–at an inopportune time in a critical stage." That describes today’s stage. With 16 miles to go, a big chain-reaction crash exploded in the middle of the peleton, sending a dozen or more riders skidding and bouncing across the asphalt or into the road-side ditches. About 120 cyclists were either in the crash or held up by it, while only 60 were able to survive in the lead peleton. This had deep impact in several prize categories.

Victims of the Crash  Among GC contenders, Frank Schleck (RadioShack) lost over 2 minutes, Robert Gesink (Rabobank) lost 3'31", and Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) lost over 13 minutes. This probably ends their chances of winning the yellow jersey. For the youth classification, Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky) had been trailing TeJay Van Garderen (BMC) by only one second all week, but the crash cost B-H over 2 minutes and probably any chance of winning the white jersey. The crash prevented Mark Cavendish (Sky) from contesting the sprint finish, costing him over 40 points in his battle with Peter Sagan for the green jersey. And these were the lucky ones! Four riders suffered injuries severe enough to force their withdrawal, including American Tom Danielson (Garmin).

Beneficiaries of the Crash  GC leaders, Brad Wiggins (Sky) and Cadel Evans (BMC) were protected by teammates at the head of the the peleton, and escaped the crash entirely.  Same for Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack) in the yellow jersey.  Peter Sagan (Liquigas), André Greiple (Lotto) and Matt Goss (OGE) avoided the crash, sprinted to the finish in that order, and collected the maximum green jersey points.  Greiple seems charmes.  Yesterday, he not only miraculously survived the end-stage crash, eh went on to win the stage.  Today, he survived two early crashes (with injuries), avoided the big one, and still managed to take second in the stage. 

Cancellara and the yellow jersey :  He holds the all-time record (27) for most career days in yellow among riders who have not won the Tour. He does not expect to win this year’s Tour. In fact, he expects to lose the yellow jersey on Saturday, the first day with serious mountains. He recognizes his strengths and weaknesses. Winning the overall GC prize would be a dream for him, but he knows it is not realistic. He said, "A dream is not a goal." When he loses the yellow jersey, he will ride to support his team’s designated GC contender. Will it still be Frank Schleck? Or will it be Andréas Kloden? Time will tell.
 
Prospects for the Green Jersey:   Super Nova Peter Sagan is in the driver’s seat for the Green Jersey. There are only 4 more classic sprint stages left in this year’s Tour, and he should at least come out even in those. The rest of the sprint points will be won in the intermediate sprints of the 8 mountain stages. Sagan is a strong uphill racer, and should get a good share of those points. With his current lead, the jersey should be his, barring an accident or a monumental collapse.

Matt Goss and André Greipel should battle for second place (and the chance to capture the prize if Sagan stumbles). Goss’s Team Orica GreenEdge claimed the green jersey as their primary goal at the start of the Tour. It is still within reach for them, if they can keep Goss at the front of the remaining flat stages, and help him collect an extra share of the intermediate points in the mountain stages. Greipel is in about the same situation as Goss. His Liquigas team will need to help him score high in the flat stages. He has demonstrated uphill power, and with his team’s help he could collect extra points in the intermediate sprints of the mountain stages.

Mark Cavendish wanted the sprint prize, but I think it is beyond his reach. He has the least chance of the top 4 at gaining extra points in the intermediate sprints in the mountains. He has the biggest deficit (80 points) to Sagan. The 4 remaining flat stages will not be enough for him. He said that winning the green jersey is secondary to helping Wiggins win the GC prize. (Plus, he’s already looking ahead to the Olympics in August.) Cavendish will not be personally much help to Wiggins in the mountains. However, he can help by releasing his teammates to concentrate on helping Wiggins, instead of dividing their energies between two prizes.

I must not forget to mention former Utah resident David Zabriskie (Garmin), who courageously led the breakaway in this stage, was only captured within sight of the finish line, and won the Most Combative award for the day. 

Let the mountain racing begin!   Ashley is investigating the cemetery, as Nan and Aaron descend the Alpe d'Huez in a blur.