Tour of California Insights for the Tour de France

In mid-May top riders from around the world contested the Amgen Tour of California, perhaps the most prestigious bike race in the USA. Many of the teams that will ride the 2012 Tour de France were represented, but with only some of their top stars. The race was only 8 stages compared to 20 for the Tour, so it is not a perfect predictor for the Big One. But let’s see what it can tell us.

Robert Gesink (Rabobank) could be a force. This Dutchman (pronounced "Hay-sink") has placed well  overall (GC) in the last two TDFs.  But last September, he crashed while training and broke his leg in 4 places.  He came back strong in the Tour of California. He won the tough Mt. Baldy 7^th stage and vaulted over Dave Zabriski to claim the yellow jersey. He’s young and strong, and could improve on his 2010 5^th place at the TDF.

Peter Sagan (Liquigas-Cannondale) could be a sprinter to challenge Mark Cavendish. He is from Slovakia and rides for an Italian team. Or I should say, his team rode for him in California. He won 5 stages, which says a lot for him. But his team gets a lot of credit too. They chased down breakaways, and they played the chess moves just right in leading him to the finish line each time. (He came close to a 6^th stage win, but the solo breakaway rider barely managed to survive to the finish.) In the first two stages, Sagan’s team waited for him when he crashed and punctured, and then they carried him back to the front of the peleton, where they set him up to come out of nowhere for those first two stage wins. He is a strong, cagey sprinter; and he has a fierce team helping him. Cavendish could have his hands full!

The best placed Americans in the Tour of California were: 2. David Zabriski (Garmin-Barracuda), 3. Tom Danielson (Garmin-B), 4. Tejay Vangarderen (BMC), 6. Levi Leipheimer (Omega Pharma-Quickstep), and 8. Chris Horner (RadioShack-Nissan). Zabriski won the stage 5 time trial, and wore the yellow jersey for two stages. All of these are capable of scoring well at the Tour de France, but Horner is currently listed as a reserve for RNT, so he might not even be riding in the Tour.

This race illustrated the importance of the time trials and the mountains in determining the GC winner. Sagan won 5 stages (almost 6) out of 8 total stages, and he wore the yellow jersey for 60% of the race. But he lost about 3 minutes to both Zabriski and Gesink in the time trial, and another 26 minutes to Gesink and Zabriski at Mt. Baldy.  He ended up in 42^nd place overall. Gesink and Zabriski placed high in both the time trial and the Mt. Baldy stages, and they finished in 1^st and 2^nd place overall, with only 46 seconds separating them.

In the flat stages, the GC contenders don’t care if they win, as long as they stay with the peleton, because everyone in the peleton gets the same time–even the sprint winners like Sagan. The GC boys don’t even care if a breakaway survives to win a stage, as long as it does not include another GC hopeful. Of course, the GC riders and their teams will push the pace of the peleton to keep the breakaway time gaps small enough that they can overcome such gaps with their power performances in the time trials and the mountains.

So, the Sagans and the Cavendishes get their glory in the sprints, while the Gesinks and the Zabriskis win the overall prize in the time trials and/or the mountains. Two separate races within the race.

Ashley and Matt Jensen battling for those extra few seconds for the stage win and the yellow jersey as they near the summit of the legendary Mt. Ventoux.  The whole Tour de France hangs in the balance!