The Giro d’Italia - a Predictor for the Tour?

The Giro d’Italia is one of the three "Grand Tours," along with the tours of France and Spain. It is almost as old as theTour de France, and comparable in many ways. Taking place through most of the month of May, what can it predict for July? I gleaned three main themes:

1. Mark Cavendish (SKY) is still the presumptive favorite for sprint king;
2. Frank Schleck (RNT) and several other expected GC contenders may be only pretenders; and
3. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) and Joaquim Rodriguez (Katsuha) could be contenders for the yellow jersey.

Cavendish won three flat stages, and could have won 6 with a little luck–and with his old lead-out train. Too bad for him, the old team folded, and his new helpers are not as experienced. Some of them did not even survive to the 18^th stage which Mark might have won with his old crew. Matt Goss (Orica-Greenedge) captured one stage, and was close in a few others, giving Cavendish his most consistent challenge. But Goss was eliminated from the race in the mountain stages for finishing too far behind the leaders, so he was not a factor in stage 18. American Tyler Farrar (Garmin) challenged on a couple of early sprints, but abandoned on the first tough medium mountain stage. Mark Renshaw (Rabobank) a former set-up man for Cavendish showed promise as a sprinter, and Cavendish misses him in his lead-out train. Will this year’s Tour de France be a war between Peter Sagan (Liquigas-Cannondale) and Cavendish? They did not face each other in the Giro.

Andy Schleck is injured and will not ride the TDF this year. His brother Frank is the expected GC contender for RadioShack-Nissan, but he did not show well in the Giro. He fought gallantly for an impressive 3^rd place in Stage 7, but was otherwise a non-factor. Besides, Frank and his coach Johan Bruyneel are already lining up their excuses: "Too many kilometers of time trials in this year’s Tour." (Bruyneel will not attend the Tour to avoid detracting from his team’s focus as he is sucked into the Lance Armstrong doping allegations.) Other would-be contenders who disappointed in the Giro include Roman Kreuziger (Astana), Damiano Cunego (Lampre), and Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Cannondale). Kreuziger did win Stage 19 in the mountains, but by then he was over 12 minutes behind the GC leaders, so it didn’t figure in the race for the pink jersey.  Another fan favorite from prior Tours who will miss it this year is Thor Hushovd (BMC).  He abandoned mid-way in the Giro with a virus, and is still recovering.

Ryder Hesjedal demonstrated the point I made in my last post, about the GC victory requiring strength in both the mountains and the time trials. He was near the top in all three time trials, and played a cat-and-mouse game with Joaquim Rodriguez in all of the mountain stages. He didn’t win any of the climbing stages, but was close enough to trade the pink jersey back and forth with Rodriguez throughout the race. In the final-stage time trial, he beat Rodriguez by 47 seconds, and dramatically snatched back the pink jersey (GC prize) by a mere 7 seconds overall, after three weeks of racing. The Garmin-Barracuda team deserves much of the credit for the win, as they won the team time trial to give Ryder Canada's first ever pink jersey.  Then they rescued him several times on the grueling mountain stages, keeping him always within striking distance.  Rodriguez showed himself to be a worthy contender. He was first in one mountain stage and a close second in two others for a decent edge over Hesjedal in the climbing.  His final time trial was better than most pundits expected, but not quite good enough to hold the pink jersey for the final podium.  Both of these riders will be fun to watch in the upcoming Tour de France.

Aaron Kennard suffering his way up the legendary Mt. Ventoux, where many a Tour de France has been won and lost!