Stage 3 - Yes and No on my predictions; More Glory for Sagan

I predicted the hilly finish would fragment the peleton, and that the GC leaders would protect their positions. True. True.  65 riders (out of 196) finished in the first peleton, followed by a long line of stragglers and little groups, and then a trailing peleton of about 50 riders at 7'27" behind the leaders. Then, more stragglers to 16'29". Definitely a fragmented peleton. Most of the GC contenders held their positions, with a few dropping out of the top 50. For every one who dropped, others moved up in ranking, but no one improved his time compared to the yellow jersey.

I also predicted a possible breakaway winner, but not a GC contender, and implicit in that would be no fight at the line among the sprinters. False. False. False.  Instead of a low-ranking breakaway winner, we had a sprint finish among the few sprinters who survived all of the hills. It was won by the Super Nova, Peter Sagan, who moved from 22^nd place to 15^th place and was the only rider to improve his time relative to Cancellara, the yellow jersey.  Even better for Sagan was winning back 28 green jersey points from Cavendish, to make up for the 26 points he had lost to the Manx Missile the day before. Best of all, of course is Sagan’s second stage win in the first four days of his very first Tour de France. He did it by out-sprinting Boasson Hagan, Peter Velits, Cancellara and Albasini in a steep uphill finish. I believe he has their attention.

Morkov continued to show respect for his polka-dot best-climber jersey by joining the breakaway for the third straight day, and collecting points on the first four climbs. In the process, he won the prize for most combative. He’s not a GC contender, and he may not win any stages, but he is capturing a basket full of glory for his rookie appearance. He’s a real hero to all the underdogs of the cycling world.

Two crashes resulted in two riders abandoning the Tour: Sivstov (Sky) and Rojas (Mov). Each held the number nine spot on his team, but their loss could still have an impact. Team Sky needs all of its domestiques to lift and protect both Bradley Wiggins, in his quest for the yellow jersey, and Mark Cavendish, in his bid for the green jersey. Working for two leaders like that has already put pressure on the Sky support riders. They can ill afford to lose one.

The organizers of the Tour this year have intentionally added lots of small-but-steep climbs to their ordinarily flat stages. In today’s stage that feature eliminated most of the usual sprinters from the finale. Tomorrow’s Stage 4 may not be quite as brutal on the sprinters, but there is one steep hill 12 Km from the finish that could separate the sheep from the goats (mountain goats, that is). If Cavendish wants to win this stage he will need his team to carry him over that last-minute hurdle. "Little bumps" like that don’t seem to faze Peter Sagan. Look for Sagan to add points to his green jersey lead.

Stage 5 and Stage 6 (Thursday and Friday) look like carbon copies of Stage 2, and are tailor-made for Mark Cavendish. Anyone else wanting to win either of those stages will need to beat Cavendish at his strength. None of Stages 4 through 6 should result in much change in the GC picture. Morkov could go for a fourth breakaway in a row in Stage 4 to add points for his polka-dot jersey. He might as well. He will need as many of these little climbing points as he can get if he wants to retain the King of the Mountain jersey once the Tour enters the real mountains (Stage 7 and beyond).

Next week, the Tour de France will be climbing in the Alps.

Stage 2 - Exactly As I Predicted

This one was not rocket science. I think everyone predicted an unsuccessful escape followed by a classic sprint finish, with Cavendish contending for the win, and no shake-up in the GC standings. It was so obvious, I can't claim any special genius.

Well, what is there to even write about?

A word for Michael Morkov, who could’ve coasted today and still retained the polka-dot jersey as King of the Mountains. Instead, he honored the jersey by jumping into the breakaway for a second day in a row, and collecting the one extra climbing point on offer. Now, he wears the jersey, knowing he fought for it again, and not just by default. Classy move, Michael.

Mark Cavendish (Sky) answered my challenge from yesterday, and won this stage that was tailor-made for him. (This, after having to change bikes in the early part of the race.) He reported afterwards that he did it without the usual lead-out train. At 5 Km he thanked his two supporting teammates, and rode on alone, hoping to find just the right opening. At 1 Km, it was Greipel (LTB), Cavendish and Goss (OGE) leading. Cavendish then made his move, and Greipel and Goss couldn’t quite match him. Sagan (Liq) came in sixth place. Close, but not really the head-to-head challenge I have been hoping for.

With one more point than Sagan in the intermediate sprint, and 25 more at the finish, Cavendish closed the gap to only 15 points behind Sagan for the green jersey. Sagan moved ahead of Cancellara (RNT) to earn the green jersey in his own right for tomorrow. (He’s been wearing it on 2^nd place points, because Cancellara was already wearing the yellow jersey.)  Goss, Greipel and Gilbert (BMC) round out the next contenders for the points prize, at about 10-point intervals below Cavendish.

As expected, the yellow jersey stays with Cancellara, and none of the GC contenders made a move in the standings today. The first 146 riders (out of 198) all came in with the same time as the winner. No surprises.

With 45 Km to ride today, the peleton passed through the Belgian town of Silly. That set my mind to spinning about the possibilities for a nonsense (Silly?) song I should write . . . . Something along the lines of an old Kingston Trio song called "To Morrow," about a frustrated traveler trying to get to the town of Morrow. I’ll have to make a note to come back to this when the Tour is over.

My previous predictions for tomorrow still stand.

I don't have any pictures of Silly, Belgium.  But I do have this silly Belgian picture--the statue of Manneken-Pis, the iconic symbol of Bruxelles.

On a more serious note, I offer this photo of the Swiss Alps, taken from Gruyères, Switzerland.  This to honor Swiss rider Fabian Cancellara, the current yellow jeresey leader of the Tour de France.

Stage 1 -- Not Quite As I Predicted

I predicted a sprint battle between Mark Cavendish (Sky) and Peter Sagan (Liq). I failed to account for Cavendish’s inability to cope with the hilly finish. But mostly I predicted accurately. The breakaway failed, Sagan contested–and won–the sprint finish, but against Cancellara (RNT) and Boasson Hagan (Sky). And the GC leaders protected their leads.

The failed breakaway was not a complete failure. Two of the six riders reaped their first taste of Tour de France podium glory. Michael Morkov (SaxoBank) collected points on 3 intermediate climbs, earning him the polka-dot "King of the Mountains" jersey. He will wear it for at least two days, since tomorrow’s stage only has one climbing point available, so no one can catch him until Tuesday. Nicolas Edet led the breakaway, and persevered the longest, winning him the award for most combative. He will wear a red number bib tomorrow, and his name will always be in the TDF prize record. It was a happy day for both of these riders, even though they were swallowed by the peleton with just 7 miles to ride, after leading the race for 116 miles.

After two stages, neither Cavendish nor Matt Goss (OGE) is in the top 20 for the sprinters’ green jersey. In the intermediate sprint (middle of the stage) they did give a spirited fight for the small points left-over by the six breakaway leaders. But they both fell behind the peleton in the hilly terrain at the end of the stage, and were nowhere in sight to challenge Sagan for the big points at the finish. Cancellara, Sagan and Boasson Hagan lead in this category, with comfortable margins over the rest of the field.

The big excitement in this 5-hour stage occurred in the last 30 minutes. At that point (25 Km/16 miles to go), several teams began jockeying for the front of the peleton, and the speed picked up fiercely. These teams were trying to protect their GC leaders and/or to set-up their sprinters. Suddenly there were two minor crashes! One was caused by a spectator leaning in too close for a photo. The increased speed closed the gap to the six breakaway leaders, and split the peleton into three groups. Any GC hopefuls in the rear groups were in danger of losing time to the leaders. With 10 Km (6 miles) to go, the six day-long attackers were caught, and the sprinters’ teams took charge.

More speed. Each team seizing its opportunity to lead. The lead changing hands. The final kilometers rolling past. The intensity building. Cancellara makes his move. Only Sagan matches the outburst. Boasson Hagan dives to bridge the gap. Chavenel tries to cross the divide, but Albasini and Van den Broeck bring the peleton along. GC favorites Wiggins and Evans are in this chasing peleton. Cancellara, Sagan and B-H keep a small gap with 500 meters to go. At 250 meters, Sagan makes his move. Cancellara surges to keep up. B-H charges too. Sagan blazes across the finish, with the other two close behind. Peter Sagan gets his first taste of TDF glory in only his second day as a Tour rookie. He is going to be exciting to watch for years to come!

There was almost no change in the top 50 places for the GC prize. Cancellara remains in the yellow jersey. Wiggins is still the presumptive favorite. Cadel Evans is still just 10 seconds behind Wiggins. Most of the top 50 finished in that small peleton on the heels of the winners, so they clocked the same time–no time gained or lost relative to each other. But three GC candidates failed to hang with that leading peleton, and did lose a few seconds. Albasini lost 14 seconds, Costa and Leipheimer lost 17. These latter two fell out of the top 50. It’s still a long Tour, all of these riders are still within one minute of the leader, and there will be opportunities to gain back some of this time. But as furious as the competition is at the top, they can ill afford to lose even a little time in a relatively "easy" stage like today’s.  [123 miles in 5 hours, averaging 25 mph is "easy?"  I stuggle to average 12 mph for 10 miles!]

What’s on tap for tomorrow, Monday? An easier stage than today. Only one small mountain in the middle. Downhill and flat to the finish. Someone will try a breakaway for the minor glory it provides. The sprinters’ teams (and RadioShack-yellow jersey) will pace the peleton to reel in the attackers. There will be a sprint finish. Will we see the long-anticipated showdown between Peter Sagan and Mark Cavendish? If not tomorrow, when, Mark?

On Tuesday, the finish is more hilly than today’s stage, and I expect the peleton to be more fragmented than today. Time differentials will start to be meaningful. This could be the day for the first successful breakaway–either a day-long effort, or a late-in-the-day opportunist. But it will probably be someone far down the GC standings. Cancellara and RadioShack will work hard to match any aggression by riders near the top, in order to protect his yellow jersey.

At the summit of the Col du Tourmalet (Pyrénées) in May, 2011, Matt Jensen and our group of riders encountered Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol) as he rode up to the summit on a training ride.  Van den Broeck was among those mentioned in today's report, as he challenged the winners of stage 1 of the 2012 Tour de France.

The Prologue - Wiggins Declares Himself the Favorite

The Prologue for the 2012 Tour de France is in the books, and Bradley Wiggins (Sky) has emphatically declared himself the man to beat. Riding toward the end of the day, he was six seconds slower than Sylvain Chavanel’s time at the mid-point. But he turned on the after-burners over the rest of the course, and nipped Chavanel’s final time by a half-second to take the lead. Ten minutes later, Fabian Cancellara (RNT) beat Wiggins’ time by seven seconds to win the stage and the yellow jersey for tomorrow. But Cancellara is not a threat to keep the GC prize all the way to Paris. The bigger threat on that front should have come from Cadel Evans (BMC), the defending GC champion and the last rider of the day. Alas, Cadel finished ten seconds slower than Wiggins.

The GC battle is not decided already, of course, but Wiggins is in the driver’s seat. His lead over his most likely challengers ranges from the 10" over Cadel Evans to 31" over Frank Schleck (RNT), with 10 or 15 possible contenders somewhere in between. It’s a long three weeks before Paris. We’ll have to see if anyone can shake up the standings in the mountains or in two more much longer time trials. Team Sky will be protecting Wiggins all the way, as they did in the Dauphiné, and any challengers will need an even stronger team effort to defeat him.

This short stage of the race had no real bearing on the battle for the sprint points and the green jersey. However, one hopeful sprinter, Peter Sagan (Liq), was disappointed in his result. He has made a name for himself this year winning several of these prologue time trials. But today, he nearly crashed on the course, had to un-clip his shoe from the pedal, and ended up way back in the pack at minus 24" compared to the winner. Similarly, GC hopeful Tony Martin (OPQ) had a flat tire, had to exchange bikes in the middle of the race, and finished at minus 23".

In my post on the Giro d’Italia, I identified Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) and Joaquim Rodriguez (Katsuha) as possible GC contenders. Hesjedal is only 11" behind Wiggins, so he could still be a factor, but I missed the boat on Rodriguez. He didn’t even make his Katusha team’s nine-man roster for the Tour de France. Ooops! My bad.


I predict that stages one and two will involve breakaway attempts that will be reeled in by Liquigas-Cannondale (for Peter Sagan) and Sky (for Mark Cavendish), and possibly by other teams with sprinter hopefuls. These two stages should end with fierce sprint battles, and we’ll see if Cavendish will continue his dominance.

Stage three, has some steep climbs near the end that will not be conducive to a sprint finish. Look for a breakaway to succeed (either an all-day break, or a late break, or both), and possibly some shake-up among the GC contenders. Wiggins and Evans should be able to protect their positions, unless they go after each other. If that happens, there could be fireworks!

Levi Leipheimer (Omega Pharma-Quickstep) is still in the hunt for the GC yellow jersey, with just a 21-second deficit to Wiggins after the Prologue.  This photo shows Levi (yellow jersey) in the Park City Criterium, Tour of Utah 2010.

It's Just Not Cricket!

Forbes Magazine recently published a list of the top 100 athletes world-wide, based on compensation. It says "world-wide," so you would think that would include cyclists, right? Well, I looked, and there wasn’t one bike racer! Not one! The bottom of the list came in at a mere $16.6 million. Chump change! You might as well get a desk job, if that’s all you make. The most embarrassing part was that two cricket players from India made the list, but no cyclists! Cricket! Curling, or darts, maybe. But cricket? The top football player got $26 million just in salary, without playing for a whole season. A golfer, chased up a tree by a wedge-wielding wife, could lose more, just in endorsements, than the $16 million minimum. The top 100 athletes combined made $2.6 billion last year! There are about 30 of the world’s poorest countries with GDP lower than that! But no cyclists in the top 100.

So, how much do cyclists make? CyclingTips, A website out of Australia, pegs the minimum salary for riders on the top pro teams at about $44,000. That goes up as the riders achieve good results, especially in the most prestigious races. For the top riders, the salaries are listed in the range of $1-3 million. With endorsements, appearance fees and other earnings, maybe they double that? Still, a long ways from making the Forbes Top 100!

This has caused me to noodle on how to better monetize the sport. Let’s assume that they already maximize the amount they can make from sponsorhips and endorsements.  Basically that is advertising revenue. And I’m sure that the Tour de France and a few other big races already get as much as they can from broadcast revenue. Again, that is advertising-based.

Why can’t they create a gate revenue model? In what other sport do the spectators get to watch for free? (Well, besides your kid’s Saturday soccer games, of course.) I realize it would be hard to charge admission for spectators all along the full length of a 200-mile stage of the Tour de France. But it would be feasible to block off large sections at the start and near the finish line, or at the summits of the big climbs, and to charge admission for those areas. People spend thousands of dollars in air fare, car rentals, hotels, meals, etc. to come to France for the Tour. An extra $20 or so for a prime spot to watch the race would be nothing to them. In fact, it could make the experience BETTER! They could reserve the spot in advance, and not have to camp-out to hold the space. Crowd control would be more civilized. Racer safety would be improved. The barriers marking the reserved space could carry advertising (more revenue!) The organizers could sell concession licenses for beer, food and souvenirs. They could rent nearby farm pastures for paid parking, with a shuttle to take the spectators to their reserved spots. This would reduce congestion and improve the experience. The possibilities just keep expanding! I should get a royalty for these ideas!

Remember, you heard it first right here.

Park City Criterium, Tour of Utah 2010.  Notice the crowd barrier with advertising for Bingham Cyclery.  It would not be that hard to charge admission for such a prime viewing spot.

Belgium Has a Split Personality!

The Tour de France starts tomorrow in Liège Belgium (or Belgique to the French). The northern half of Belgium is called Flanders, site of bloody World War I battles that inspired the poem: "In Flanders fields the poppies blow, Between the crosses. row on row." Well, as you might expect, the people of Flanders speak Flemish. But Flemish is really Dutch; they’re just too proud to admit it. Or they don’t like to call it Dutch, because it sounds too much like Deutch (German), which it almost is anyway. And of course the real Dutch live in Holland, but just when you figure out where Holland is on the map, you see that it is really called the Netherlands. Meanwhile, the Dutch-speaking Flamands (Flemish) live in Belgium, which they call België. And their capital city is Brussel, which the French-speaking Belgians call Bruxelles, and the English and Americans call Brussels. (Finally something the Yanks and Brits agree on!)

Now most of the rest of Belgique is called Wallonia, and the people are Walloons, and they speak French, because for a long time Belgium was ruled by Spain. (I know, it doesn’t make any sense! Just stay with me.) But the French speakers in Bruxelles are mostly not Walloons. They are some other brand of French. Which brings up the point that Brussel/Bruxelles is smack in the middle of Flanders, and both Flemish and French are the official languages. It is the capital of België/Belgique by vote of the Flemish and Bruxelles French, to the consternation of the French-speaking Walloons.

There really is no point in all of this, except that Liège is in Wallonia, the Walloon south-eastern portion of Belgique, and that is where this year’s Tour de France will start on June 30. Wallonia also includes Luxembourg, but it is now a separate country (if a Grand Duchy qualifies as a country). And of course Luxembourg is the home of Andy and Frank Schleck and the RadioShack-Nissan-Trek cycling team. (How did those Walloon, French-speaking boys get such German sounding names?)

Let the Tour begin!

Beautiful baptismal font in the main cathedral of Liège.  It has nothing to do with cycling, but it is one of Liège's cultural treasures.

A 16th Century restaurant in Old Liège.  The sign over the door would not lie, would it?

How to Lose the Tour de France

We’ve been talking about how to win, and the different prizes. Let’s talk about how the Tour can be lost.

The most dramatic way is to suffer an injury in an accident. Every year several riders are forced to withdraw with broken ribs, collar bones, wrists, etc. There have even been some fatal accidents. If you watched the 2011 Tour, you may remember the spectacular crash where a car bumped Juan-Antonio Flecha, whose fall somersaulted Johnny Hoogerland into a barbed wire fence. Blood everywhere! Ripped his pants clear off!  Miraculously both were able to continue, but they each dropped about 20 places in the standings. Alexandre Vinokourov was not so lucky on that same day. After flying into a ravine full of trees on a wicked downhill crash, he had to leave the race with a broken leg.

Of the 198 riders who started the 2011 Tour, 31 failed to finish. Most from injuries, a few from fatigue, discouragement or illness, and some for being just plain too slow! You see, there is a rule that riders must finish the race within a certain time delay after the first rider crosses the line. Otherwise, they are not allowed to continue the next day. Four riders suffered that embarrassment in 2011.

Only one rider wins the yellow jersey, or the other prize jerseys. Of those who try for one of those prizes, most do not lose by leaving the race, but for more subtle reasons. They might have just one bad day in the mountains or in a time trial. They might get caught up in an accident-even without injuries–at an inopportune time in a critical stage. They might lose an essential teammate. Or their best might just not be quite as good as their chief competitor’s best.

Curiously, there is one loser in every Tour de France who wins a special prize. He is known as the Lanterne Rouge (the Red Lantern). It is just what you think–the red lantern hanging on the end of a train’s caboose. To "win" this prize, he must finish the race, but he must come in last place. It actually has some value–perverse bragging rights, post-race appearance fees, name forever remembered, etc. (No one remembers who was second-to-last!)

In 1979 two riders were neck-and-neck for last place going into the final time trial. They both rode as slow as possible, and one was 1 minute 40 seconds slower than the other–slow enough to win the Red Lantern. But wait! He was outside the time limit, based on the winning time for that stage. He was disqualified from the race, and the second-slowest turtle won the coveted prize after all. So, we only remember the name of Gerhard Schönbacher.

It seems like there ought to be a moral to this story, but, for the life of me, I can’t figure out what it is.

Is this our very own Matt Jensen, rolling up to the finish line of  l'Alpe d'Huez to collect the coveted Lanterne Rouge?  Congratulations, Matt!