Stage Ten: Bunch Sprint in St. Malo

As expected, today’s stage ended in a contest of the big sprinters.  The early breakaway group won the high points in the intermediate sprint, while the Big Three essentially tied for the middle points: 6th place André Greipel (Lotto) 10 points, 7th Peter Sagan (Cannondale) 9 points, 8th Mark Cavendish (Omega) 8 points.  At the finish, Marcel Kittel (Argos) swept out of Greipel’s slip stream to take the stage win from his compatriot, scoring the maximum prize of 45 points.  Greipel in 2nd scored 35 points, with 3rd Cavendish 30 points, and 4th Sagan 26 points.  That leaves Sagan still in the Green Jersey, leading Greipel by 83, and Cavendish by 103.  Kittel moved up from 7th to 4th, but still trails Sagan by 137.

Cavendish figured in a bit of drama at the end.  As he charged out of the line to begin his final sprint, he bumped into Tom Veelers, from Kittel’s lead-out train just as Veelers peeled out to make way for Kittel’s sprint.  Veelers crashed, while Cavendish managed to stay upright, but it broke his rhythm just enough to keep him from catching Kittel and Greipel.  No penalty for Cavendish, but also no stage victory.

One hundred riders finished with the same time, but Daniel Moreno (Katusha) lost 1'40", which dropped him from 17th place to 18th, for the only change of standing in the GC top 20.  There should be some changes in that group after tomorrow’s individual time trial, but Chris Froome (Sky) will probably keep his Yellow Jersey.

I don't have any biking pictures relevant to today's stage.  But in two days the Tour heads across the Loire Valley, home of many of France's most amazing châteaux.  This hobby horse/cycle was on display in the Château Cheverny . . .

While, outside the château, we spotted this cool old Rolls Royce.

Then, while visiting the Château Villandy, we spotted another wonderful Rolls Royce . . .

. . .  and this super-cool Bentley.  They have nothing to do with the Tour de France, but they have wheels and I saw them in France, in the area where the Tour will soon pass through.  Does that count?

Stage Nine: Spanish Armada Attacks British Fleet

The Spanish Movistar team attacked Chris Froome’s British Team Sky today in the final stage of the Pyrénées, and exposed a possible weakness.  By maintaining the constant pressure of maximum speed through all five steep mountain climbs, Movistar was able to drop all of Froome’s teammates, leaving him to defend himself alone against most of his top rivals.  (Is Team Sky having second thoughts about leaving its Columbians Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Luis Henao off their roster?)  To his credit, Froome only lost time to two rivals – and only 20 seconds.

Daniel Martin (Garmin-Sharp) won the stage after attacking just before the summit of the final climb, followed closely by Jakob Fuglsang (Astana).  Froome’s Yellow Jersey peleton of 19 riders crossed the line 20 seconds later, with two stragglers at 25".  From there, the time gaps were 4 minutes, 7 minutes, 11 minutes, etc., up to the final riders arriving more than 26 minutes behind Martin.

As dangerous as Movistar’s aggression was for Froome, he actually solidified his hold on the Yellow Jersey.  Prior to Stage 9, 15 riders were within 3'07" of Froome; after the stage, only 12 riders are within that gap.  Only Martin and Fuglsang improved their times relative to Froome, and they are both in the bottom half of that challenging pack, at 2'28" and 3'07" respectively.  Andy Schleck (RadioShack), Cadel Evans (BMC) and Daniel Moreno (Katusha) clawed their way back into the top 20, but did not improve their times relative to Froome.  Losers from the previous top 20 were Richie Porte (Sky) from 2nd to 33rd place, Michael Rogers (Saxo) 10th to 18th, Andrew Talansky (Garmin) 12th to 22nd, Igor Anton (Euskaltel) 15th to 19th, and Haimar Zubeldia (RadioShack) 19th to 40th.

None of the leaders for the Green Jersey won any points today, so Peter Sagan (Cannondale) maintains his commanding lead.  Nairo Quintana (Movistar) retained his White Jersey (youth).  Pierre Rolland (Europcar) collected a few more climbing points and kept the Polka-dot Jersey.  Romain Bardet (AG2R) spent much of the race in attacking breakaway groups, and won the combativity award (red number dossard in next stage).  Movistar has a 4'11" lead over Saxo-Tinkoff for the team prize, with Belkin close behind at 5'22".

Tomorrow is a rest day, so there will be no post, unless I hear of something amazing to report.

Tuesday offers a flat stage, with probably a bunch sprint finish.  So, fireworks from Sagan, Greipel and Cavendish.  Wednesday is a flat individual time trial.  So, an opportunity for shifts in the top ranks for the Yellow Jersey.  Stay tuned.

This is the road leading into Bagnères de Bigorre, where Daniel Martin (Garmin) claimed victory in today's 9th Stage.  The race today came down this road in the opposite direction from these riders, who are beginning the climb to the Col du Tourmalet (2011).



When the Tour de France is not in town, Bagnères de Bigorre is a quiet little town, a doorway to the Pyrénées, with a good bike rental shop, if you want to try your own legs on the famous climbs from the Tour de France.  This photo from May, 2011 shows Matt Jensen, Aaron & Nan Kennard, and Ashley Jensen, ready to begin their assault on the Col du Tourmalet.

Stage Eight: Sky Wastes No Time Taking Command of the Race

The first 120 Km of Stage Eight were suitable to the sprinters, as the route descended gradually from Castre to Castelnaudary, the high point in the Canal du Midi, and then crossed the “Autoroute des deux Mers” (Freeway of the two Seas), to begin a gradual climb toward the foothills of the Pyrénées.  The usual breakaway of four riders arrived first at Quillan, the site of the intermediate sprint.  However, since Quillan is barely 100 meters higher in elevation than Castelnaudary (at 70 Km distance), the rest of the peleton were still all together and the big sprinters contested the remaining points.  André Greipel (Lotto Belisol) collected 11, Peter Sagan (Cannondale) 10, and Cavendish (Omega Pharma Quickstep) 9.  Bottom line: essentially no change for the Green Jersey with Sagan still leading the other two by about 100 points.

Then the fireworks began!  Teams Sky (for Chris Froome), Saxo-Tinkoff (Alberto Contador) and Belkin (Bauke Mollema) took control of the pace-setting as the roads shot skyward 1,700 meters in less than 50 Km to the summit at Col de Pailhères.  In short order, the peleton caught the original escape group and spat them out the back, along with all the sprinters.  By the summit, many of the GC hopefuls were either dismissed or on the brink of dismissal.  18 Km of downhill gave some temporary respite to those on the brink.  But the final 9 Km with 600 meters of climbing proved decisive in favor of Chris Froome and Team Sky.  Froome won the stage and claimed the Yellow Jersey.  His teammate Richie Porte took second almost a minute behind.  And only 16 other riders finished within 3 minutes of Froome.

Of the dozen riders we listed yesterday as likely leaders after Stage 8, only five remain within 3 minutes of the lead:

1 Chris Froome (Sky) leader
3 Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) at 1'25"
4 Bauke Mollema (Belkin) at 1'44"
7 Alberto Contador (Saxo-Tinkoff) at 1'51"
11 Rui Costa (Movistar) at 2'45", presumably riding in support of Valverde.

I predicted that Stage 8 would cut the number of contenders in half.  Check!  I predicted the stage would reveal a few “sleepers.”  Check!  Not all of the other nine riders within 3 minutes of Froome should be considered GC "sleepers" because they are riding in support of their team’s captain, and will not challenge for GC leadership unless their captain falters, such as:

2 Richie Porte (Sky) at 0'51", riding in support of Froome
5 Laurens Ten Dam (Belkin) at 1'50", riding for Mollema
6 Roman Kreuziger (Saxo-Tinkoff) at 1'51", riding for Contador (saved Contador’s bacon today!)
8 Nairo Quintana (Movistar) at 2'02", riding for Valverde (claimed White Jersey today!)
9 Joaquin Rodrigues (Katusha) at 2'31, a “sleeper” for GC
10 Michael Roger (Saxo-Tinkoff) at 2'40", riding for Contador
12 Andrew Talansky (Garmin-Sharp) at 2'48", “sleeper” (2nd place White Jersey), will he replace Ryder Hesjedal as designated GC chief?
13 Daniel Martin (Garmin-Sharp) at 2'48", “sleeper,” will he ride for Talansky? Or vice versa?
14 Mikel Nieve (Euskaltel-Euskadi) at 2'55", “sleeper.”

Who got cut on this first brutal day in the mountains?  Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) at 3'27", Andy Schleck (RadioShack Leopard) at 4'00", Cadel Evans, Tejay van Garderen and Philippe Gilbert (BMC) at 4'36", 12'38" and 29'25" respectively, Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) at 6'39", and Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) at 8'29".  True, one or two of them might claw their way back into the top ten by Paris.  But, barring a melt-down at Team Sky, they can stop dreaming of the Yellow Jersey.

About 40 Km east of Quillan, site of today's intermediate sprint, lie the ruins of Quéribus.  It is one of five hill-top fortresses in this region of the Pyrénées, known as the "five sons of Carcassonne."  800 years ago, Quéribus was the last of the Cathar refuges to fall to the invaders from Paris during the cruel Albigensian Crusade undertaken to exterminate the Cathar religion in Languedoc (now the south of France). 

Stage Seven: Sagan Scores Major Coup on Eve of Mountain Stages

Today’s stage traveled back in time along the rural roads of Languedoc in southern France: within 50 Km of the walled city of Carcassonne (first fortified by the Romans around 100 A.D.); parallel to the Canal du Midi (built in the late 1600's); and ending in Albi, the namesake town for the cruel Albigensian Crusade to exterminate the Cathar religion (early 1200's).  Peter Sagan’s Team Cannondale went on their own crusade today, to exterminate any last flickering hopes by other sprinters for the Green Jersey.

Like a team time trial train Cannondale pushed a punishing pace up the two climbs leading to the intermediate sprint.  Result, relegation of all Sagan’s closest rivals to a gasping grupetto 10 minutes behind his powerhouse peleton (zero intermediate points), and maximum points (20) for Sagan.  Then pushing on relentlessly to the finish, Cannondale delivered Sagan to the line for his first stage victory of this year’s Tour.  Maximum points again (45)!  The rivals staggered home almost 15 minutes later for no points at all.  Any later, and they would have missed the awards ceremony.

Tomorrow, the Pyrénées!  Finally, we will see some separation among the Yellow Jersey (GC) hopefuls.  How do the big favorites currently stand?  All within a minute of each other, achieved mostly in the team time trial of Stage 4.  In first place, Daryl Impey (Orica GreenEdge) wears the Yellow Jersey, but he is not likely to keep it another day.  In order of rank and time gap from Impey, the “Big Boys” are as follows:

7 Chris Froome (Sky) 8"
11 Alberto Contador (Saxo-Tinkoff) 14"
14 Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) 22"
17/18 Alejandro Valverde & Rui Costa (Movistar) 25"
22-24 Cadel Evans, Philippe Gilbert, & Tejay van Garderen (BMC) 31"
32 Andy Schleck (RadioShack Leopard) 34"
37 Bauke Mollema (Belkin) 42"
41 Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) 47", and
43 Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) 1'01".

That gives you a list of 12 potential winners among the current top 50.  By tomorrow night we’ll know if I overlooked one or two sleepers, and we’ll cut the number of possible winners in half.  The stage is relatively flat until the intermediate sprint at 119 Km, then it launches into a 50 Km “HC” climb straight up into the clouds, followed by 20 Km screaming down the twisting backside, and then 10 Km straight up to the category 1 summit finish.  The peleton will be shredded to pieces by the end of this stage.

Any big names already eliminated from the GC race?  Yes, at least two.  Jurgen van den Broeck (Lotto Belisol) did not start Stage 6 because of injuries in a crash the previous day.  Janez Brajkovic (Astana) did not start Stage 7, also because of injuries earlier in the race.  Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) has lost three supporting teammates; and Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) has lost a key helper in American Christian Vande Velde.

I don't have any pictures of Albi, of the Canal du Midi, nor of the Cathars being burned at the stake.  But this photo captures the size of the fortified cité of Carcassonne.  Today's stage passed 50 Km north of here; and tomorrow it passes even closer to the west as it heads into the Pyrénées.

Stage Six: Greipel Honors Fallen Teammate with Two Sprint Victories

On the hottest day of the Tour, racing along the flat Rhône River Valley roads across Provence and the Camargue, with the Mistral trying to blow them off the bikes, the Lotto Belisol team carried André Greipel to two sprint victories in honor of their fallen GC chief, Jurgen van den Broeck.  VDB fell victim to the big crash in the final 3 Km of Stage 5.  He finished that stage, but could not start Stage 6 because of a knee injury suffered in the crash.  There go his Yellow Jersey hopes for the second time in four years!

Why is that bad for Mark Cavendish of Omega Pharma Quickstep?  Because Lotto will now concentrate all its energies on helping Greipel win sprints, stages and the Green Jersey, that’s why!  Need proof?  Greipel won both the intermediate sprint and the finishing sprint in today’s stage ending in Montpelier.  For frosting on the cake, he also won the day’s prize for most combative, and will wear a red number dossard tomorrow.  Cavendish was second in the sprint and fourth at the finish, losing 22 points to Greipel and 5 to Peter Sagan (Cannondale).  Cavendish’s low placement at the finish may be partly attributable to his crash earlier in the stage.  Bad luck!  Sagan is always disappointed when he doesn’t win a stage.  But, in the meantime, he continues to accumulate points.  He leads Greipel by 29, and Cavendish by 40 for the Green Jersey.

Tomorrow’s stage to Albi should be one last sprinters’ stage before the mountains.  But with two medium climbs before the intermediate sprint, Mark Cavendish risks being shut-out on those middle points. These two climbs might also entice a strong breakaway, which could erode the intermediate points and even threaten the stage finale.  Sagan is versatile enough to score points at both lines in this kind of stage, and maybe Greipel is too.  But Cavendish could well lose ground again tomorrow.

With the first 124 riders crossing the finish line in a bunch, and losing no more than 5" to the stage winner, this stage had little impact on the final GC standings.  But, by placing higher at the finish, Daryl Impey (Orica GreenEdge) did leap-frog his teammate Simon Gerrans for the glory of wearing the Yellow Jersey in tomorrow’s stage.  First time ever for a rider from South Africa!  Edvald Boasson Hagan also slipped in above Garrans for 2nd place.

In case you missed the tearful video replays, American Edward “Ted” King (Cannondale) missed the time delay by 7 seconds in the team time trial on Tuesday (Stage 4).  Because of injuries he suffered in a crash during Stage 1, he was unable to match the pace of his team, so he rode the entire course with no one to draft on.  He appealed his disqualification, but to no avail.  His parents came to France to watch him race, but ended up instead helping him pack up for home. The Tour de France can break your heart!

Today's stage crossed the Rhône River at Tarascon/Beaucaire, just a few miles south of this famous Roman aqueduct, the Pont du Gard . . .

. . . and just a few miles north of this ancient Roman amphitheater at Arles.

Then it continued west, passing just south of Nîmes, site of this well-preserved Roman arena . . .

. . . and continued across the Carmargue, a marshy nature preserve, home to flamingos, white horses, black bulls and the "Guardiens" (French cowboys) who ride the horses and raise the bulls.  This photo of the old "Winter Garden" in Arles shows the crest for the Camargue (below center) and the crest for Arles (top).  Sadly, when we went back to Arles in 2011, we found that the Winter Garden had been replaced by a car park.  That's progress for you!

Stages Four and Five: More Glory for Australia/Orica; Cavendish Finally Scores!

The Australian team Orica GreenEdge capitalized on its momentum from Stage 3 by winning the Stage 4 team time trial at Nice by a mere 0.76 second.  Still, no matter how close the margin, a win is a win.  Their second stage win of this Tour.  And their Simon Gerrans keeps his Yellow Jersey for another day.

In Stage 5, a long ride of 228 Km from Nice to Marseille, the sprint teams did their jobs.  They caught the 6-man breakaway group with 4 Km to go, and then ran their set-up trains for a head-to-head contest of their chief sprinters.  Mark Cavendish rewarded his Omega Pharma Quickstep team by powering to his first stage victory of this Tour.  Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky) took 2nd, Peter Sagan (Cannondale) 3rd, and André Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 4th.  Cavendish moved into 2nd place for the Green Jersey, but, as I predicted, Sagan minimized Mark’s gain by matching his points in the intermediate sprint, and staying close at the finish. Still, Green Jersey or no, you have to admire Cavendish.  He now has 24 career stage wins at the Tour de France!  Most riders could reap a lifetime of bragging rights with even one Tour stage win.

Simon Gerrans (Orica GreenEdge) finished close enough to the sprinters, and in the same time, so he keeps his Yellow Jersey for yet another day.

The sprinters and their teams will need to control the next two stages, as they did today, if they want any more glory before the Tour heads into the Pyrénées.  They must monitor and capture the early escape each day, and they must execute their set-up and sprint finish to perfection.  When the mountain stages start on Saturday and Sunday, the objective of the sprinters will be to finish within the time delay!

Orica GreenEdge may well keep the Yellow Jersey through Friday, but on Saturday, with a category 1 summit finish (after an HC summit 30 Km out), the REAL contenders for the Yellow Jersey will move to the top of the GC (General Classification) standings.  In case you’ve forgotten “HC” stands for “hors catégorie” and refers to climbs that are harder than category 1, i.e., non-categorized.  Sunday’s stage has a downhill finish, but it will, nevertheless, further refine the GC standings, with four category 1 climbs, and a cat. 2 thrown in near the end, just for good measure.

Today's stage ended in Marseille.  I shot these photos at the Vieux Port (Old Port) in that ancient city where the fishermen come in off the Mediterranean Sea and sell their catch right off the boat.  These were taken in 1966 (while I was serving a mission for the LDS ("Mormon") Church in that part of France), but the scene  would have been familiar in Roman times, and would still be essentially the same today.

Stage Three: From Laughing Stock to Hero – Gerrans Restores Dignity to Australia.

Orica’s bumbling buscapades from Stage 1 went viral on YouTube, and must have embarrassed Crocodile Dundee and Aussies everywhere.  But today, Simon Gerrans (Orica GreenEdge) out-dueled Peter Sagan (Cannondale) for Orica’s first-ever stage win at the Tour.  Orica claimed double glory when Simon Clarke earned the red number dossard for the Most Combative rider of the day.

Looking back at my blog from the 2012 Tour de France, I find that after Stage 6, I christened Peter Sagan “Super Nova,” and predicted he would win the Green Jersey.  He was a bright new star last year, and he fulfilled my prediction.  Now, this year, his brilliance only increases, and I am compelled to make the same prediction after only three stages!  Super Nova Sagan will own the Green Jersey again in Paris.

The Green Jersey goes to the rider with the most points.  Points are awarded for high placements at one intermediate sprint in each road stage, and for high placements at each stage finish.  The intermediate sprint points start at 20 for first place and decline for the next 14 places.  For “flat” stages (like Stage 1), which are suitable for the pure sprinters to fight head-to-head, the winner gets 45 points, declining to 15th place.  For “rolling” stages (like Stages 2 and 3), top points are 30.  For “mountain” stages, top points are only 20.

Because most stages have a breakaway group, who collect the highest points at the intermediate sprints, the pure sprinters must fight for the lower places worth only 10, 9, or 8 points.  On the flat stages, a sprinter like Mark Cavendish might win the stage and collect 45 points, but his rival sprinters will collect almost as many points for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, places, etc.  Where the pure sprinters miss out is during the rolling and mountain stages.  They seldom stay with the main GC peleton all the way to the finish, so they collect no points there; and they often fall behind the peleton even prior to the intermediate sprint, so again no points.  But Peter Sagan is a star of a different magnitude.  He wins his share of sprint finishes, and collects defensive points for high placements when he does not win outright.  He collects intermediate sprint points on flat stages at about the same pace as the other sprinters.  But he can also climb with the GC riders, so he collects intermediate sprint points on rolling and mountain stages.  Finally, because of his climbing strengths, he can stay with the peleton all the way to the finish on rolling or mountain stages, and collect points there as well.  In the first three stages, only Peter Sagan has collected points at 5 of the 6 opportunities.  The crash at the end of Stage 1 prevented him from collecting high points at that finish.  But at every other points-award mark, he has collected high points.

If Mark Cavendish were to win 5 sprint stages (225 points), but Sagan were to place closely behind him, the points difference would be small, and Sagan would more than make up that difference with points in the rolling and mountain stages where Cavendish will struggle to collect any points.  Furthermore, Cavendish won’t win all of those sprint stages, because they will be shared among the other strong sprinters, such as Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano), André Greipel (Omega Pharma Quickstep), David Millar (Garmin-Sharp), Matt Goss (Orica GreenEdge), Peter Sagan (of course!) and several others.

So, that’s my prediction, and I’m sticking to it – Super Nova Peter Sagan will win the Green Jersey again this year.

I don't have any photos of a super nova, nor of Peter Sagan.  But his sudden brilliant appearance on the cycling scene is comparable to these two comets:  Above, Comet PANStars 2013 (to the left of the Moon); below, Comet Hale-Bopp 1997.  (Both photos by blog author, Raeburn Kennard.)