Tour of California – What Omens for TDF?

Many of the strongest teams for this year’s Tour de France used the Amgen Tour of California as a warm-up.  Since the California race overlapped the Giro d’Italia, the team rosters were split between the two races.  This means that some of the eventual TDF matchups did not occur.  But we can get a glimpse at some of le Tour’s possibilities by studying the Tour of California.

First, a stage-by-stage recap:

Stage 1, 165 Km to Escondido: Lieuwe Westra (Vacansoleil-DCM) spoiled the hopes of the sprinters by launching an attack in the last 5 Km, and by holding on for the stage victory.  Francisco “Paco” Mancebo (5-Hour Energy) joined the attack and survived to take 2nd.  Peter Sagan (Cannondale) led the pursuing peleton home, but missed the capture by a mere six seconds.

Stage 2, 200 Km to Palm Springs: A brutal mid-stage climb in boiling heat split the peleton and fried the hopes of many GC contenders.  Janier Acevedo (Jamis-Hagens Berman) won the stage, with Tejay van Garderen (BMC) earning 2nd at 12 seconds behind, and Philip Deignan (United Healthcare) 3rd at 27 seconds.  Michael Rogers (Saxo-Tinkoff) and Mancebo are still within reach of the lead, losing only 55" and 1:03 respectively.

Stage 3, 178 Km to Santa Clarita: After another day in the burning sun, the sprinters’ teams reeled in the attackers (including Andy Schleck (RadiorShack-Leopard)) with about 16 Km to go. Peter Sagan capitalized for his first stage win, with Michael Matthews (Orica-Greenedge) and Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) on his heels.  The GC standings did not change.  At least one rider was hospitalized with heat stroke during these first three stages in the furnace.

Stage 4, 134 Km to Santa Barbara: A sea breeze cooled the air for this stage which was also won by the sprinters – this time by Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp).  Sagan only managed a 5th place finish, but retained the points jersey for best overall sprinter.  Again, no change in the GC standings.

Stage 5, 186 Km to Avila Beach: The sprinters wanted this stage, but were foiled by an attack in the final 5 Km.  Jens Voigt (RadioShack-Leopard) won the stage after triggering the late attack into a crosswind and catching most of the peleton off-guard.  Only 15 riders finished within 14 seconds of Voigt, including Tejay van Garderen (BMC) – with strong help from teammate Thor Hushovd – and Michael Rogers (Saxo-Tinkoff).  All of the other GC boys lost a minute or more.  Sprinters Tyler Farrar and Peter Sagan finished 2nd and 4th respectively, but were once again 6 seconds too late to contest the victory.  Tejay van Garderen moved to the top of the GC standings, and Michael Rogers advanced to 2nd at 42".  Janier Acevedo fell to 3rd at 50", while Mancebo dropped to 8th at 1:53.

Stage 6, 32 Km, Individual Time Trial, San Jose: Tejay van Garderen (BMC) moved ever closer to the overall GC victory with a decisive triumph in this time trial.  Michael Rogers lost over a minute, but still holds GC 2nd, now at 1:47.

Stage 7, 147 Km to Mt. Diablo: After a day chasing a breakaway group, Paco Mancebo led the capture, but was passed by Leopold König’s late counter-attack.  König (NetApp-Endura) held on for the stage win, followed closely by Acevedo, van Garderen and Rogers.  Acevedo moved up to 3rd in the GC standings, but van Garderen and Rogers still have a firm grip on 1st and 2nd.

Stage 8, 130 Km to Santa Rosa: The final stage belonged to the sprinters.  Peter Sagan won his second stage of this year’s race, with Tyler Farrar coming in 3rd.  Tyler got boxed-in just when he needed to respond to Sagan’s sprint, and never had a chance.  The GC leaders finished in the same time with the peleton, so Tejay van Garderen (BMC) captured the yellow jersey prize, with Rogers and Acevedo sharing the podium.  Paco Mancebo (a favorite of our family) finished 7th at 4:52, and Andy Schleck (RadioShack-Leopard) was in 25th place at 20:11.  Not an auspicious result for Andy in terms of Tour de France expectations, although he did score 3rd in the King of the Mountains competition.  Peter Sagan won the points (sprinter) prize, with Tyler Farrar 2nd, and Gianni Meersman (Omega Pharma Quickstep) 3rd.

What does this race tell us about the upcoming Tour de France?

First: That Tejay van Garderen (BMC) is ready!  He will probably be assigned to help Cadel Evans as long as Cadel keeps pace with the GC contenders.  But if Evans falters, BMC will shift their support to Tejay.

Second: That Michael Rogers (Saxo-Tinkoff) is an equally worthy second to his team’s Alberto Contador.

Third: That Peter Sagan (Cannondale) is primed to defend his TDF green jersey, and to challenge Mark Cavendish (Omega Pharma Quickstep) and any other sprinters for multiple stage victories.

Fourth: That Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) seems ready to improve on his TDF fortunes as compared to 2012.  Is he an equal to Sagan and Cavendish?  It will be up to him and his team to establish that at the Tour.

Fifth: That Andy Schleck is still not back to 100% of his 2010-2011 form.  He may make some noise at the Grand Tour, but he will probably not challenge for the overall GC yellow jersey.

Finally: Others from the T of C who might make a splash at the Tour are Jens Voigt (RadioShack-Leopard) for attacking, courage and a possible stage victory; and sprinters Michael Matthews (Orica-GreenEdge) and Gianni Meersman (Omega Pharma Quickstep).

Paco Mancebo, was near the top in this year's Tour of California.  He is a favorite of our family, from lodging with Spencer and Shauna during multiple rides in the Tour of Utah.  This photo is from the 2010 Tour of Utah.