Stage 12 – End of Pyrénées, Froome still in Yellow

Chris Froome used the strength of his teammates – especially Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas to preserve his hold on the Yellow Jersey as the Tour concluded its visit to the Pyrénées.  During the final climb to the Plateau de Beille, most of his GC challengers launched attacks, but the Sky formation refused to panic, kept their steady pace and methodically reeled them in one after the other.  Attackers included Nibali, Contador, Quintana and Valverde, some of them multiple times.  Tejay Van Garderen saw the futility of attacking, and chose instead to protect his 2^nd place standing by just riding in the slipstream of Froome and the Sky train.  At the very last minute Valverde attacked at the line and realized a one-second advantage over Froome, but it makes no difference since he is almost three minutes behind.

Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) won the stage, having distanced his breakaway companions.  This is his second stage win, but he is not a threat for the Yellow Jersey.

Peter Sagan still wears the Green Jersey, but he conceded a few points to André Greipel at the intermediate sprint.

Error Correction: I mistakenly reported that Lars Boom (Astana) withdrew because of cancer.  He did withdraw, but it was because of a persistent fever.  It was Ivan Basso (Tinkoff-Saxo) who withdrew because of cancer.  Reports say that he has already had a successful surgery.  Hopefully, he will have a full recovery.

This year's Tour does not include the famous mountain in Provence - Mt. Ventoux - which is a shame.  That climb has often been a deciding factor in past Tours.  Here we see Ashley and Matt Jensen nearing the summit of Mt. Ventoux in May 2011.

Stage 11 – Polish Rider Conquers Tourmalet Stage

Rafal Majka (Tinkoff-Saxo) rode away from an early breakaway group, beat the peloton over the col du Tourmalet by 5 minutes, and held on to win Stage 11 in the Pyrénées today.  Daniel Martin made a valiant effort to catch Majka and won the Most Combative prize.  Peter Sagan out-pointed André Greipel at the intermediate sprint to retake the Green Jersey, with a current lead of 7 points.

Team Sky shepherded Chris Froome to the line 5:21 behind Majka with almost no change in the GC standings, as the top contenders managed to stay in Froome’s select group.  With late attacks, Bauke Mollema (Trek) and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) nibbled a few seconds off their deficits to Froome. 

On the other hand, Astana’s big effort to drop Froome and Team Sky on the Tourmalet backfired on Vincenzo Nibali.  Astana pushed the pace very hard on the lower slopes, but Sky calmly matched the pace.  By the summit, it was Astana that had cracked, and Nibali ended up losing another minute, and dropping out of the top 10.  Mollema, with his 10-second attack at the finish, leap-frogged Nibali into 10^th place. 

With his mountain-top finish in Stage 10 (double climbing points), Froome also claimed the Polka-Dot (King of the Mountains) Jersey.  Majka’s victory today did not qualify for double points, so he's in 3rd place in this category, trailing Froome by 25 points.  Meanwhile, Richie Porte has picked up enough points helping Froome to be in 2nd, and will wear the KOM jersey tomorrow because Froome will still wear the Yellow.

Team Sky’s defensive tactics are perfect for tomorrow’s last stage in the Pyrénées   Sky will gladly allow any unranked riders to push another successful breakaway.  Sooner or later, any ranked GC contenders who hope to threaten Froome will need to attack.  Only five mountain stages remain.  If they just hang with Sky and try to gain a few seconds at the end of each stage (as Mollema and Valverde did today), they will never gain enough to overtake Froome.  But if they launch an aggressive long-range move (as Astana did today), and Sky continues to match their aggression, they risk blowing up and losing time, as Nibali did.  With 10 stages still to go, the Yellow Jersey competition is already looking desperate for the chasers.  In an interview after Stage 11, Van Garderen, in 2^nd place at a deficit of 2:52, sounded very much like he has conceded 1^st place to Froome and is content to just protect his 2^nd place position.  Unless someone else causes Froome to crack, I do not expect Van Garderen to launch any attacks.  A couple more days like today, and only the placements of the also-rans will be at stake.  

Bagnères-de-Bigorre, near the site of TDF 2015 Stage 11's intermediate sprint.  Also the starting point for these climbers' ascent of the Col du Tourmalet in May 2011: Matt Jensen, Aaron Kennard, Nan Kennard and Ashley Jensen.

Early slopes of the Tourmalet.  This is where Astana tried to push the pace, in hopes of dropping Sky and Chris Froome.  (TDF 2015)  The tactic backfired when Astana cracked instead of Sky.  Riders in photo: Ashley Jensen, Matt Jensen and Nan Kennard (May 2011).

Matt Jensen celebrates conquering the Col du Tourmalet (May 2011).  Matt is the founder of North Salt Lake's annual Three Kings Bike Challenge, a worthy test for any would-be climber.

The view at the top of the Col du Tourmalet.  Nan & Aaron Kennard, Matt & Ashley Jensen (May 2011).  (All photos courtesy of Aaron Kennard.)

Stage 10 – British Invasion for Bastille Day

The first mountain stage rolled out perfectly for Chris Froome and his British Team Sky.  As predicted the Sky train set a fast pace into the Pyrénées causing a steady erosion of GC contenders and pretenders from the peloton.  Once on the final climb, Valverde (Movistar) tried the strategy I suggested yesterday: namely attack the peloton in hopes of causing panic, over-reaction and blow-up by Sky,  He tried it several times, but each time Sky kept their cool and steadily reeled him in.  Then Robert Gesink (LottoNL-Jumbo) tried it.  Same result: no panic, steady recapture.  The victims of these assaults were not Sky and Froome, but other GC boys such as Nibali and Mollema.  The French hopefuls for Bastille Day fireworks (Pinot, Péreaud, and Bardet) steadily lost ground.  French riders Gallopin and Barguil managed best to save face for the host country, moving up in the standings, but still losing time. 

About when Contador and Van Garderen began to slip off the back end of Sky’s dwindling peloton, Froome launched a counter-attack of his own that left Quintana in the dust.  He raced the final kilometers by himself for the victory.  His own teammates, Richie Porte and Thomas Geraint led a dozen stragglers home with time gaps ranging from one minute to three. 

Before today, 4 riders were within one minute of Froome, and 11 others were within three minutes.  After today, the closest rider (Van Garderen) is almost 3 minutes behind, and only six others are within five minutes. 

Of my original top-6, only Van Garderen, Quintana and Contador are in that small 5-minute group (along with Quintana’s teammate Valverde – the “other Spaniard”).  Nibali and Mollema are at minus 7 minutes, and seem lucky to be that “close.”   Three who have exceeded my expectations are Gallopin, Gesink and Barguil in 7^th, 8^th and 9^th places at deficits of 4:33 to 6:12. 

One or two more days like today, and Froome will have demoralized everyone except Sky, and he will have an iron grip on the Yellow Jersey.  Team Sky demolished BMC’s former lead in the team competition, going from a 7:30 deficit to a 6:03 lead.

On the Green Jersey front:  The see-saw battle continues.  Greipel collected six more points than Sagan at the intermediate sprint, jumping back into the Green Jersey with a lead of three points.  This pattern of small changes will likely continue for two more days, before a stage-ending sprint might occur in Stage 13, with really big points at stake.

Two bits of sad news:  You may remember that Lars Boom (Astana) nearly missed the Tour this year when a pre-race lab test showed he had low cortisol levels.  Astana chose to include him on the squad anyway, with doctors saying his health was not at risk.  Today, Lars Boom withdrew from the Tour, and we learn he has been suffering with a fever.  Ivan Basso (Tinkoff-Saxo) also abandoned overnight, having been diagnosed with testicular cancer.  Best wishes, to both of them.  Ivan, get the cancer treated, and may you recover fully and quickly.

We enter the Pyrénées!  Let the climbing begin!

Another view:  Mont Canigou (Pyrénées) from Perpignan in February.  The snow will be off the roads, but if a storm comes through, it could snow on the riders even in July.

Stage 9 – BMC Wins Team Time Trial, with Sky At Their Heels

Two weeks ago I predicted that the time trials would not have a significant bearing on the fight for the Yellow Jersey.  How did I do? 

First off, I misjudged the Team Time Trial (TTT).  I said it was too short, and comparable to the TTT from 2013, so I predicted time gaps in the range of 25 seconds or less.  Because this year’s course was hilly and featured a long, steep uphill finish, the time gaps made it comparable to a much longer course.  Almost half of the teams finished between 1:30 and 2:00 behind Tejay Van Garderen's winning team BMC – 3 to 4 times the gap that I predicted.  Mollema’s Trek team was among those teams with the big time gaps.  

Except for that, my predictions held up fairly well.  For example, GC leader Chris Foome's Team Sky was only one second behind BMC, so no damage to Froome's current lead.  Of course, we will not know for sure whether the time trial gaps will be critical for the final GC until the whole race is finished.  But, among my projected 6 contenders (Nibali, Contador, Froome, Quintana, Van Garderen and Mollema), the net time gap from both time trials are mostly very small, as I predicted.  Foome is the current GC leader after 9 stages.  But if just the time trials are counted, Van Garderen leads Froome by 9 seconds, followed by Quintana at -24, Nibali at -36, Contador at -44, and Mollema at -1:20.  The gaps for the latter three are larger than I expected, but still not insurmountable.  I continue to expect the mountain stages to produce time gaps that will wipe out the relevance of the time trial gaps.  Mollema is the most at-risk, because he has also lost 1:45 to Froome in the so-called “safe” stages.  There are another ten riders with GC potential who are within five minutes of Froome, plus two – Pinot and Rolland – who could stir things by trying to sustain one or more stage-stealing breakaways.  They are at -8:25 and -11:43 respectively.

Froome’s strategy in the mountains will likely be for his Sky teammates to keep a fast enough pace through the mountains to discourage attacks, while at the same time keeping Froome safe in their slipstream.  Some of the GC boys will wilt under that pace, and the field will narrow a bit each day.  Near the end of each stage, Froome will look for opportunities to attack the remaining contenders.  This is the strategy that carried Wiggins to victory in 2012, Froome in 2013, and Nibali (with Astana) in 2014.

Anyone hoping to wrestle the Yellow Jersey away from Froome will need to, first, always match the Sky pace; and, second, find one or more opportunities to launch a successful long-range attack.  For most of the riders, attacking at the last minute, merely for a stage win will not yield enough time gap to capture the Yellow Jersey. 

Pinot and Rolland are far enough behind in the current standings that they might be allowed to join an early breakaway.  If successful, they could conceivably rejoin the favorites.  A really successful breakaway might also create some panic on Team Sky.  If Froome could be induced to over-react, he might crack, leaving the door open for others to seize control of the Yellow Jersey.  Sagan and Valverde are strong climbers, working for Contador and Quintana, respectively, and they are both also highly placed in the GC standings.  If, instead of riding shelter for their “bosses,” either of them were to attack, Sky and Froome would be forced to respond, again creating the possibility of panic, over-reaction, and a blow-up.  In my opinion it will require some kind of aggressive, creative attacking strategies such as these in order for anyone to take the Jersey away from Froome. 

Just riding defensively, matching the Sky pace, will not be sufficient.

Let the mountain stages begin!

Speaking of mountains and cycling, Draper Utah has amazing trails for mountain biking!  

I encountered these women cyclists this morning while hiking Ann's Trail near my home.

I also shared the trail with several high school mountain biking teams.  This one from Corner Canyon HS in Draper. 

More high school cyclists out for an early morning training ride.

Some of the trails are designated for down-hill bikers only.  A hiker would risk his life plodding along on those trails.  But there are plenty of trails for every taste.  Hikers, bikers (non-motorized only!), horseback riders.  Families, children, and even old geezers like me.

Stage Eight – “Allons Enfants de la Patri-e, Le Jour de Gloire Est Arrivé.”

The French finally have a stage winner for their Tour.  And just in time for Bastille Day next week.  Alexis Vuillermoz (AG2R Le Mondial) jumped ahead of the favorites on the steep slopes of the Mûr-de-Bretagne, and claimed his first Tour de France stage win.  This native son spoiled the dreams of Dan Martin, Alejandro Valverde and Peter Sagan who chased him over the line.  GC hopefuls Nibali, Talansky, Pinot and Bardet failed to maintain contact with the front part of the peleton and lost small amounts of time to Froome, who still wears the Yellow Jersey.

In the intermediate sprint, Greipel added 4 points to his Green Jersey lead over Peter Sagan.  But Sagan turned the tables on Greipel at the finish line, scoring 19 points to Greipel’s zero.  This shifts the Green Jersey to Sagan by a margin of only 3 seconds.  They will resume their battle on Tuesday (after the rest day), when the Tour enters the Pyrénées.

Daniel Teklehaimanot kept his Polka-Dot (King of Mountains) Jersey without scoring any more points, because only 3 points were available, and they went to riders with no previous points.

The major and minor contenders for the Yellow Jersey retained their positions in that race (except the four mentioned who lost time), with Froome still leading a pack of 20 riders by margins ranging from 11 seconds to 3 minutes 15 seconds.  Three minutes could be regained in the mountains, but that rider (Bardet) would have to not only out-ride Froome by that much, but he would also have to out-ride the other 19 riders ahead of him.  Not likely.  But the seven riders within a minute of Froome could still reasonably hope to move into the lead and perhaps win the final prize.  Indeed, in tomorrow’s team time trial, either Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo) or Tejay Van Garderen (BMC) could steal the Yellow Jersey if their teams could beat Froome’s Team Sky by 12 or 14 seconds respectively.  Very real possibilities!

I said before the Tour started that the time trials would not decide the final winner of the Yellow Jersey, and I still believe that.  But, there is a high possibility that the TTT tomorrow could cause a change in the holder of that jersey for the start of the second week of the Tour.  These riders will all be super motivated tomorrow. 

So, will Team BMC post the fastest time in tomorrow's team time trial, and retain their Yellow Helmet position as the leading team?  And will they win by enough seconds to propel their leader Tejay Van Garderen into the Yellow Jersey?  

Or will Team Sky - riding last and knowing the time and speed to beat - preserve the Yellow Jersey for their leader Chris Froome?  Every day is exciting. 

Stage Seven – Cavendish Finally Breaks Through

Today’s flat stage to Bretagne (Brittany) – not to be confused with Great Britain – followed the script laid out for it.  Early breakaway, with Teklehaimanot collecting another climbing point and keeping his Polka-Dot Jersey.  The Green Jersey boys contesting the left-over points at the intermediate sprint, with Sagan creeping one point closer to Greipel.  The peleton catching the escapees within the last 20 Km.  And the sprinters’ teams winding the speed up near 60 Km/hour for a bunch sprint finish. 

This time Cavendish kept his cool, patiently resisting the urge to surge too soon.  Greipel found himself leading the final charge, and providing the slipstream to slingshot Cavendish around him at the last minute for Cavendish’s first stage win of the Tour.  Sagan also tried to slingshot past Greipel, but failed by a few inches.  Cavendish’s tactics (and the work of his team Etixx-Quickstep) were brilliant.  He probably will not win five stages – as I suggested earlier as a possible maximum.  But he could yet win two or three.  He dedicated this win today to his fallen teammate Tony Martin.  I am happy for Cavendish.

The GC standings remain unchanged.  Whereas Sagan yesterday closed the gap on Greipel for the Green Jersey, today Greipel opened up the gap again, this time by 9 points.  Consolation for Sagan came with the time bonus for 3^rd place on the stage, which moved him into GC 2^nd place overall for the Yellow Jersey, just eleven seconds behind Froome.  Sagan could conceivably steal the Maillot Jaune tomorrow with a strong finish in the uphill finish at Mur de Bretagne; or even on Sunday with a strong ride by Tinkoff-Saxo in the team time trial.  You know these ideas will be on the agenda in the Tinkoff bus and hotel.

Imagine you are in France to watch the Tour de France.  This outdoor market is in Lentilly, a village outside of Lyon.  The Tour passed right through this village last year in Stage 12.  Of course the riders did not stop to enjoy it.

A few Km beyond Lentilly (previous photo) that same Stage 12 swept through the even-smaller village of Pollionay.  You can just see Lyon in the background haze.

Five or ten minutes later, Stage 12 (2014) sped past the village of Vaugneray.

Down a hill and around a bend, and Stage 12 (2014) flew past Yzeron.  My grandson Sam and I made it a point to follow the Tour's route from that stage a few months after the race.  Our pace was relaxed, and we absorbed all the beautiful and peaceful atmosphere of rural France.  A pastry in Lentilly.  A look inside some of the village churches.  A baguette sandwich in Yzeron.  Hard to beat!

Stage Six – Geography Quiz: Where in the World is Eritrea?

If you guessed “Next to Djibouti,” you guessed right.  More specifically, it is in northeastern Africa along the southern coast of the Red Sea.  Ethiopia is “below” (south of) Eritrea, and Sudan is “above” Eritrea (north and west).  Beyond Sudan to the north is Egypt.  East of Eritrea – across the Red Sea – are Yemen and Saudi Arabia.  Got the picture?  Eritrea is a small country with a long, complex history of colonization and independence.  It is also the site of numerous discoveries of the earliest ancestors of the human race.  In recent years, it is the homeland of dozens of world-class long distance runners – men and women.

So, what does Eritrea have to do with the Tour de France?  Everything, that’s what.  In today’s Stage Six, Eritrean Daniel Teklehaimanot  (MTN-Qhubeka) joined Perrig Quemeneur (Europcar) and Kenneth Vanbilsen (Cofidis) in a long breakaway that lasted until the final kilometers.  Along the way, Teklehaimanot fought for, and won, the climbing points on all three category 4 “mountains.”  This bold effort allowed him to leap-frog Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (Katusha) for the Polka-Dot Jersey as the new King of the Mountains.  Daniel explained afterwards that from far-away Eritrea he has been dreaming of wearing the Polka-Dot Jersey in the Tour de France since he was just six years old.  Talk about an “impossible dream!”  There had never before even been an Eritrean cyclist to ride in the Tour.  When he first began to nurture this dream, there probably were zero Eritreans who were even professional cyclists.  He did not dream of wearing the Yellow Jersey, but just the Polka-Dot Jersey – the King of the Mountains. 

MTN Qhubeka is a new team in cycling, and this is their first invite to the Grand Tour – the first team ever from Africa.  The team is connected to a charitable foundation that provides bicycles to children in Africa to improve transportation and mobility, allowing these children easier access to schools and other benefits in their developing societies.  Teklehaimanot is joined on this year’s history-making squad by fellow countryman Merhawi Kudus.  The team’s modest goals coming into the Tour were to accomplish one or more of the following: win a stage, or at least a podium finish, show energy in breakaways, wear a prize jersey – even if just for one day.  Their most recognizable stars are Norwegian Edvald Boassen Hagan and American Tyler Farrar – both sprinters.  But Teklehaimanot is a rising star among climbers.  He won the Polka-Dot Jersey in this year’s Criterium du Dauphiné.  His victory on the climbs today was no accident.  He and his team had specifically planned for today’s tactic, and they worked the plan to perfection.  Chapeau (Hats off) to Teklehaimanot and to MTN Qhubeka!

In other news of today’s stage, Etixx-Quickstep claimed the victory, but not by Cavendish.  It was his teammate Zdenek Stybar who jumped ahead of the peleton on the final climb.  Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo) came roaring up behind him for second place, with André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) nowhere to be seen.  This moved Sagan to within three seconds of Greipel for the Green Jersey.  The fight is on!

Sad news of the day:  Tony Martin (Etixx-Quickstep), after riding safely at the front of the peleton all day in his Yellow Jersey, had a nasty crash within a Km of the finish, and broke his collar bone.  With help from his teammates, he finished the stage, but post-race announcements say that he will not continue the Tour tomorrow.  He has been a sentimental favorite this year, after narrowly missing the Yellow Jersey time after time, and then finally claiming it with a stage win on day four.  Chapeau to you too, André Greipel.  Get well soon.

These photos are in honor of Daniel Teklehaimanot and his capture of the Polka-Dot Jersey.

The Polka-Dot Tour de France casquette was a gift to me from Elder Herb Clark after we watched last year's Tour together in Lentilly (near Lyon) - Stage 12, 2014.

As you might guess, my wife Suzanne and I love France.  She has decorated our home with her artistic French photos and just a few French roosters. 

We should take a survey and invite all readers of this blog to vote for their favorite photo from the above line-up.

In closing for today, I say again, "Chapeau to both Daniel Teklehaimanot and Tony Martin."