Stage 9 – BMC Wins Team Time Trial, with Sky At Their Heels

Two weeks ago I predicted that the time trials would not have a significant bearing on the fight for the Yellow Jersey.  How did I do? 

First off, I misjudged the Team Time Trial (TTT).  I said it was too short, and comparable to the TTT from 2013, so I predicted time gaps in the range of 25 seconds or less.  Because this year’s course was hilly and featured a long, steep uphill finish, the time gaps made it comparable to a much longer course.  Almost half of the teams finished between 1:30 and 2:00 behind Tejay Van Garderen's winning team BMC – 3 to 4 times the gap that I predicted.  Mollema’s Trek team was among those teams with the big time gaps.  

Except for that, my predictions held up fairly well.  For example, GC leader Chris Foome's Team Sky was only one second behind BMC, so no damage to Froome's current lead.  Of course, we will not know for sure whether the time trial gaps will be critical for the final GC until the whole race is finished.  But, among my projected 6 contenders (Nibali, Contador, Froome, Quintana, Van Garderen and Mollema), the net time gap from both time trials are mostly very small, as I predicted.  Foome is the current GC leader after 9 stages.  But if just the time trials are counted, Van Garderen leads Froome by 9 seconds, followed by Quintana at -24, Nibali at -36, Contador at -44, and Mollema at -1:20.  The gaps for the latter three are larger than I expected, but still not insurmountable.  I continue to expect the mountain stages to produce time gaps that will wipe out the relevance of the time trial gaps.  Mollema is the most at-risk, because he has also lost 1:45 to Froome in the so-called “safe” stages.  There are another ten riders with GC potential who are within five minutes of Froome, plus two – Pinot and Rolland – who could stir things by trying to sustain one or more stage-stealing breakaways.  They are at -8:25 and -11:43 respectively.

Froome’s strategy in the mountains will likely be for his Sky teammates to keep a fast enough pace through the mountains to discourage attacks, while at the same time keeping Froome safe in their slipstream.  Some of the GC boys will wilt under that pace, and the field will narrow a bit each day.  Near the end of each stage, Froome will look for opportunities to attack the remaining contenders.  This is the strategy that carried Wiggins to victory in 2012, Froome in 2013, and Nibali (with Astana) in 2014.

Anyone hoping to wrestle the Yellow Jersey away from Froome will need to, first, always match the Sky pace; and, second, find one or more opportunities to launch a successful long-range attack.  For most of the riders, attacking at the last minute, merely for a stage win will not yield enough time gap to capture the Yellow Jersey. 

Pinot and Rolland are far enough behind in the current standings that they might be allowed to join an early breakaway.  If successful, they could conceivably rejoin the favorites.  A really successful breakaway might also create some panic on Team Sky.  If Froome could be induced to over-react, he might crack, leaving the door open for others to seize control of the Yellow Jersey.  Sagan and Valverde are strong climbers, working for Contador and Quintana, respectively, and they are both also highly placed in the GC standings.  If, instead of riding shelter for their “bosses,” either of them were to attack, Sky and Froome would be forced to respond, again creating the possibility of panic, over-reaction, and a blow-up.  In my opinion it will require some kind of aggressive, creative attacking strategies such as these in order for anyone to take the Jersey away from Froome. 

Just riding defensively, matching the Sky pace, will not be sufficient.

Let the mountain stages begin!

Speaking of mountains and cycling, Draper Utah has amazing trails for mountain biking!  

I encountered these women cyclists this morning while hiking Ann's Trail near my home.

I also shared the trail with several high school mountain biking teams.  This one from Corner Canyon HS in Draper. 

More high school cyclists out for an early morning training ride.

Some of the trails are designated for down-hill bikers only.  A hiker would risk his life plodding along on those trails.  But there are plenty of trails for every taste.  Hikers, bikers (non-motorized only!), horseback riders.  Families, children, and even old geezers like me.