Three Reasons the Time Trials Will Not Decide the Yellow Jersey

!.  There are only two days of time trials, and only one individual time trial (ITT).

2.  The time trials are too early in the Tour, especially the ITT.

3.  The time trials are very short, especially the ITT.

1.  Only two days of time trials, only one ITT:  In 2012 the Tour de France had three days of  ITT.  The 2013 Tour had two days of  ITT, with also a team time trial (TTT) for a third day.  That extra day or two of ITT gives a distinct advantage to the GC contenders with time trial prowess, over GC contenders who might not be strong in time trials.    Because the 2015 Tour de France has only one ITT, the advantage for a strong time trial rider is minimized.

2.  Time trials are too early in the race:  From 2011 through 2014 the Tour’s final ITTs were in Stages 20, 19, 17 and 20 respectively – i.e., late in the 21-stage race.  This year, the only ITT is the very first stage.  When the ITT is late in the race, the then-leader has the advantage of riding last in the ITT, allowing him to know throughout his ride the pace he must match in order to keep his lead.  This worked very much to Vincenzo Nibali’s advantage in 2014 when the ITT was Stage 20 – the second-to-last stage of the race.  With his rivals all riding before him, his team could tell him by radio the pace he needed to ride in order to preserve his leading time margins.  But when the ITT is the first stage – as it will be this year – no one will know whose pace to match, nor how many seconds of difference in Stage One will be needed to win the Yellow Jersey by Stage 21.  Even the TTT (Stage 9) is early in this year’s Tour – before any of the mountain stages of the Pyrénées or the Alps. 

3.  Time trials are too short:  This is the biggest reason the time trials will not decide the Yellow Jersey in 2015.  The Stage One ITT is only 13.8 Km long.  The TTT (Stage 9) is only 28 Km.  The shorter the course, the smaller will be the time differentials among the riders. 

The Prologue (ITT) in 2012 was only 6.4 Km, and the Prologue time differences between the eventual Yellow Jersey winner (Brad Wiggins) and the next four riders in the final GC classification were between 3 and 21 seconds – hardly significant in the 3-week Tour de France.  Wiggins’ final GC margins over those four riders ranged from 3 to 11 minutes.  Obviously, the short ITT Prologue was a non-factor for the final GC standings.  By contrast, in that same year the final ITT (Stage 19) was 53.5 Km long (almost 4 times longer than this year’s single ITT).  In that longer race of 2012, Wiggins’ time margins over his 4 closest GC rivals ranged from 1 to 4 minutes.  In an otherwise close GC battle, time differences of that magnitude in an ITT - especially near the end of the Tour - could mean the difference between winning or losing the Yellow Jersey.  In 1992, Miguel Indurain won a 65-Km ITT with such dominance that he lapped his 6-minute man, Laurent Fignon!  But this year, we do not have either a 53-Km nor a 65-Km ITT; but only a race of 13.8 Km.  The potential time gain for the 3-week Yellow Jersey competition will be mere seconds, not minutes.

As for the Team Time Trial (TTT), again the course this year is fairly short.  And any advantage for a strong time trial rider will be tempered in the TTT, because each team’s time is determined by the time of its fifth rider.  This requires the strongest riders to “pull” the weaker riders along.  On a team whose GC leader is strong in time trials, the teammates slow him down.  On a team whose GC leader is weak in time trials, the teammates improve his time.  The time differences in a TTT are not as dramatic as in an ITT of comparable length.  In 2013, the teams of the final top 5 GC riders were separated by 25 seconds or less in the 25-Km TTT - a race very comparable to this year's 28-Km course for Stage 9.

Bottom line?  The two days of time trial racing will not be critical to determining the eventual winner of the Yellow Jersey.  This can be a good thing.  It will allow the race to focus on other riders and other teams.  There are many riders who are their own nations’ time trial champions, but who have no chance to contend for the Yellow Jersey.  This year’s situation gives those riders and their teams a chance to fight for single-stage glory without being overshadowed by the Yellow Jersey drama.

Speaking of time trials ("contre la montre" in French - "against the clock"), here are a few French clocks:

Sundial on wall of château at Azay le Rideau

Sundial vendor at medieval fair in Perpignan.

Clock tower at gare (train station) in Limoges.

Clock at the Communal Hall, Guillotières, Lyon.

Clock at the old Brottaux Gare in Lyon.  (Replaced by the new Part-Dieu Gare).

 

St. Nizier Church clock tower, Lyon.