Three Reasons the Time Trials Will Not Decide the Yellow Jersey

!.  There are only two days of time trials, and only one individual time trial (ITT).

2.  The time trials are too early in the Tour, especially the ITT.

3.  The time trials are very short, especially the ITT.

1.  Only two days of time trials, only one ITT:  In 2012 the Tour de France had three days of  ITT.  The 2013 Tour had two days of  ITT, with also a team time trial (TTT) for a third day.  That extra day or two of ITT gives a distinct advantage to the GC contenders with time trial prowess, over GC contenders who might not be strong in time trials.    Because the 2015 Tour de France has only one ITT, the advantage for a strong time trial rider is minimized.

2.  Time trials are too early in the race:  From 2011 through 2014 the Tour’s final ITTs were in Stages 20, 19, 17 and 20 respectively – i.e., late in the 21-stage race.  This year, the only ITT is the very first stage.  When the ITT is late in the race, the then-leader has the advantage of riding last in the ITT, allowing him to know throughout his ride the pace he must match in order to keep his lead.  This worked very much to Vincenzo Nibali’s advantage in 2014 when the ITT was Stage 20 – the second-to-last stage of the race.  With his rivals all riding before him, his team could tell him by radio the pace he needed to ride in order to preserve his leading time margins.  But when the ITT is the first stage – as it will be this year – no one will know whose pace to match, nor how many seconds of difference in Stage One will be needed to win the Yellow Jersey by Stage 21.  Even the TTT (Stage 9) is early in this year’s Tour – before any of the mountain stages of the Pyrénées or the Alps. 

3.  Time trials are too short:  This is the biggest reason the time trials will not decide the Yellow Jersey in 2015.  The Stage One ITT is only 13.8 Km long.  The TTT (Stage 9) is only 28 Km.  The shorter the course, the smaller will be the time differentials among the riders. 

The Prologue (ITT) in 2012 was only 6.4 Km, and the Prologue time differences between the eventual Yellow Jersey winner (Brad Wiggins) and the next four riders in the final GC classification were between 3 and 21 seconds – hardly significant in the 3-week Tour de France.  Wiggins’ final GC margins over those four riders ranged from 3 to 11 minutes.  Obviously, the short ITT Prologue was a non-factor for the final GC standings.  By contrast, in that same year the final ITT (Stage 19) was 53.5 Km long (almost 4 times longer than this year’s single ITT).  In that longer race of 2012, Wiggins’ time margins over his 4 closest GC rivals ranged from 1 to 4 minutes.  In an otherwise close GC battle, time differences of that magnitude in an ITT - especially near the end of the Tour - could mean the difference between winning or losing the Yellow Jersey.  In 1992, Miguel Indurain won a 65-Km ITT with such dominance that he lapped his 6-minute man, Laurent Fignon!  But this year, we do not have either a 53-Km nor a 65-Km ITT; but only a race of 13.8 Km.  The potential time gain for the 3-week Yellow Jersey competition will be mere seconds, not minutes.

As for the Team Time Trial (TTT), again the course this year is fairly short.  And any advantage for a strong time trial rider will be tempered in the TTT, because each team’s time is determined by the time of its fifth rider.  This requires the strongest riders to “pull” the weaker riders along.  On a team whose GC leader is strong in time trials, the teammates slow him down.  On a team whose GC leader is weak in time trials, the teammates improve his time.  The time differences in a TTT are not as dramatic as in an ITT of comparable length.  In 2013, the teams of the final top 5 GC riders were separated by 25 seconds or less in the 25-Km TTT - a race very comparable to this year's 28-Km course for Stage 9.

Bottom line?  The two days of time trial racing will not be critical to determining the eventual winner of the Yellow Jersey.  This can be a good thing.  It will allow the race to focus on other riders and other teams.  There are many riders who are their own nations’ time trial champions, but who have no chance to contend for the Yellow Jersey.  This year’s situation gives those riders and their teams a chance to fight for single-stage glory without being overshadowed by the Yellow Jersey drama.

Speaking of time trials ("contre la montre" in French - "against the clock"), here are a few French clocks:

Sundial on wall of château at Azay le Rideau

Sundial vendor at medieval fair in Perpignan.

Clock tower at gare (train station) in Limoges.

Clock at the Communal Hall, Guillotières, Lyon.

Clock at the old Brottaux Gare in Lyon.  (Replaced by the new Part-Dieu Gare).

 

St. Nizier Church clock tower, Lyon.

Do Not Overlook the “Other Spaniard” – Alejandro Valverde Could Be GC Darkhorse

Alejandro Valverde is the designated GC leader of the Movistar Team.  Yet he is not even among the top five favorites to win the 2015 TDF Yellow Jersey, according to an Internet site for betting odds.  His own teammate Nairo Quintana leads the top 5, followed by Nibali, Contador, Froome and Van Garderen.

Still, Valverde has been having a good year.  He won two of the spring classics, La Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.  He won three stages in the Volta a Catalunya (Tour of Catalonia), and he won the Sierra Tramuntana Trophy in Mallorca.  In addition, he placed 2^nd in the Tour of Oman. 

The Movistar Team (so named since 2011) has a very long history full of glory, albeit under a confusing genealogy of names.  During the 1980s as “Reynolds” the team’s Pedro Delgado won the Tour de France in 1988 and the Vuelta a Espana in 1989.  From 1990 to 2003, the name changed to Banesto, during which time Miguel Indurain won the Tour de France five times and the Giro d’Italia twice.  In 2005 the team, as “Caisse d’Epargne-Illes Balereas,” placed Francisco (“Paco”) Mancebo as the TDF’s winning young rider (White Jersey) in 2000, and overall GC 4^th in 2005.  Already by 2005 Valverde was a rising star on the team.  Valverde’s best results in Grand Tours were: Vuelta a Espana: 1st 2009, and seven other top-5 finishes; Tour de France: 2 top-5 finishes, including 4^th place in 2014.

Movistar inherited several of the strong Basque riders when Euskatel-Euskadi folded, including Benat Intxausti and Igor and Ion Izaguirre.  Promising young Columbian rider Nairo Quintana joined Movistar in 2012, and could well be their new GC leader before long.

But, for now at least, Valverde is still the designated leader.  In order to conquer the Yellow Jersey in the 2015 Tour, he will need strong support from Quintana, Intxausti and the other climbers.  The odds-makers do not expect him to win, but I am sure that the so-called “favorites” will not overlook him in the decisive mountain stages of this year’s Tour.  

A couple of Movistar news updates:

In May, Movistar’s Alex Dowsett set a new One-Hour record of 52.937 Km.  This may help him secure a spot on the Movistar squad for the TDF.  Unfortunately for him, a month later his record was broken by Brad Wiggins at 54.526 Km.

This week (June 7 to 14) Valverde and Movistar are prepping for the Tour de France as they ride the Critérium du Dauphiné.  After Stage 6, Valverde was in 3^rd place, only 30 seconds behind race leader Vincenzo Nibali.  But the next day in Stage 7 (June 13), Team Sky lit some fireworks in the peleton and rocketed their leader Chris Froome to the stage win, and from 9^th to 2^nd overall.  Valverde could not match the firepower of the attack, so his teammate Benat Intxausti was allowed to leave him and try to keep up with the attackers.  Valverde lost 2 minutes, but Intxausti finished in 4^th place for the stage, and moved up to 3rd overall, just 45 seconds behind current race leader Tejay Van Garderen.  So, will Valverde be able to match the other leaders next month in the Grand Tour?  Only time will tell.

The Movistar Team advance car, 2014 Tour de France (Lentilly - a village near Lyon- Stage 12).

The Movistar Team support car, 2014 Tour de France (Lentilly - a village near Lyon- Stage 12).

Valverde's former teammate, Francisco ("Paco") Mancebo (left), and Levi Leipheimer (yellow) fighting for supremacy in Park City at the 2010 Tour of Utah.

Mancebo still holding King of Mountains jersey after Park City stage, Tour of Utah 2010.  He finished the race in second place overall, but lost the King of Mountains jersey in the last stage.  He no longer rides the Tour de France, but is popular in the Tour of Utah.

Happy Dutchman Has Modest Expectations on New Team

In earlier posts, I have predicted big things for Dutch Rider Bauke Mollema.  (In my dyslexia, I had previously referred to him as being Danish.  Ooops!  Well, they both begin with “D” and Holland and Denmark are both up in that northwest corner of Europe.  How else can I explain it?)  Anyway, this may be the year for Mollema to steal some headlines.

He changed teams this year, leaving his career-long affiliation with LottoNL-Jumbo (formerly Belkin, Blanco, Rabobank, etc.) to sign with Trek Factory Racing.  Indeed Trek considers him to be their new General Classification (GC) leader.  Mollema loves his new team and his elevated status, and has set his sights on a top-5 GC finish at the Tour de France.  He will have the services of some big-name riders as domestiques – namely Frank Schleck, Fabian Cancellara, Yaroslav Popovych, and Haimar Zubeldia.  In addition, his TDF team could well include Matthew Busche (current USA Road Race Champion!), Bob Jungels (very promising new GC prospect), and veterans Grégory Rast and Gert Steegmans.  

In this year’s 7-stage Tirreno – Adriatico race, Mollema clawed his way to the 2^nd place GC position on the brutal snow-covered mountain of the fifth stage.  Then, in the sixth stage, he suffered a puncture with 70 Km to go.  Cancellara and other Trek riders fought heroically to pull him back, from a deficit of 2 minutes or more, to rejoin the lead peleton and to retain his 2^nd place position.  He will need this kind of team support to realize his dream of a top-5 finish at the Tour de France.

American rider Chris Horner (No. 114) and Dutch rider Bauke Mollema (No. 61), stage 12 Lyon, 2014 Tour de France.

Luxembourg rider Frank Schleck (No. 161) stage 12 Lyon, 2014 Tour de France.

Speaking of Frank Schleck, where is his younger brother Andy?  Andy Schleck eclipsed his older brother in fan popularity, and in Tour de France laurels, winning the Yellow Jersey in 2010 and placing 2^nd in 2009 and 2011.  Andy missed the 2012 TDF, due to crash-related injuries suffered in that year’s Critérium du Dauphiné.  He struggled to make a comeback in late 2012 and through 2013, but retired in 2014 citing lingering effects of his injuries.  As of March 2015 he announced plans to open a bike shop and café in his native Luxembourg.  We will miss you, Andy.

"Andy" graffiti on a wall along the climb to the Col du Tourmalet (May 2011) - a testament to Andy Schleck's popularity with cycling fans.    (Photo by Aaron Kennard)

More "Andy" graffiti - on the support columns of an avalanche shed - route du Col du Tourmalet, May 2011.  Note the graffiti honoring Haimar Zubeldia (another Trek rider) on the first column.  Note also the intrepid climbers Matt Jensen and Nan Kennard pushing up to the summit.  (Photo by Aaron Kennard)